Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 8396296 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Charlotte Werndl (0000-0003-2980-8436, University of Salzburg, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 70 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 953-976 |
| Publication date | 2019-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0007-0882 • E-ISSN: 1464-3537 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1093/bjps/axy021 |
| OpenAlex | W2810802203 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 38 |
This article examines initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty for climate projections and predictions. The first contribution is to provide a clear conceptual characterization of predictions and projections. Concerning initial-condition dependence, projections are often described as experiments that do not depend on initial conditions. Although prominent, this claim has not been scrutinized much and can be interpreted differently. If interpreted as the claim that projections are not based on estimates of the actual initial conditions of the world or that what makes projections true are conditions in the world, this claim is true. However, it can also be interpreted as the claim that simulations used to obtain projections are independent of initial-condition ensembles. This article argues that evidence does not support this claim. Concerning initial-condition uncertainty, three kinds of initial-condition uncertainty are identified (two have received little attention from philosophers so far). The first (the one usually discussed) is the uncertainty associated with the spread of the ensemble simulations. The second arises because the theoretical initial ensemble cannot be used in calculations and has to be approximated by finitely many initial states. The third uncertainty arises because it is unclear how long the model should be run to obtain potential initial conditions at pre-industrial times. Overall, the discussion shows that initial-condition dependence and uncertainty in climate science are more complex and important issues than usually acknowledged. 1. Introduction2. Projections and Predictions 2.1. Predictions2.2. Projections3. Initial-Condition Dependence 3.1. Projections 3.1.1. Dynamical conditions justifying independence of initial conditions?3.1.2. What projections can and cannot provide3.2. Predictions4. Initial-Condition Uncertainty 4.1. Projections4.2. Predictions5. ConclusionAppendix
Econometrics · Independence (probability theory) · Initial value problem · Mathematical analysis · Physics · Statistical physics · Statistics · Climate variability and models · Mathematics · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Science and Climate Studies
The Community Earth System Model (Cesm) Large Ensemble Project
Uncertainty in climate change projections
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Philosophy and Climate Science
The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments
Predicting weather and climate
The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science
On predicting climate under climate change
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation
What Are the New Implications of Chaos for Unpredictability
Computer Simulation, Measurement, and Data Assimilation
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,6 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |