Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548698 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Erwan Monier (0000-0001-5533-6570, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, corresponding author), Andrei Sokolov (0000-0003-2406-3228, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Adam Schlosser (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Jeffery R Scott (0000-0002-2733-1278, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Jeffery Scott, Xiang Gao (0000-0001-6812-8156, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 045008-045008 |
| Publication date | 2013-10-08 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045008 |
| OpenAlex | W1989504246 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 34 |
We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia
Climate change · Climate commitment · Climate model · Climate sensitivity · Climate state · Climatology · Downscaling · Effects of global warming · Forcing (mathematics · Global warming · Probabilistic logic · Transient climate simulation · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate change and permafrost · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Geology
Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions
When the future cannot reach everyone
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Impact of changes in GRACE derived terrestrial water storage on vegetation growth in Eurasia
Uncertainty in future agro-climate projections in the United States and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
Global Surface Temperature Change
The representative concentration pathways
Uncertainty in climate change projections
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century
Rising methane emissions in response to climate change in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century
The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate
| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,45 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2026 (12) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |