Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies
The case of winter 2020/2021
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544891 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lara Rhiannon Cosford (0009-0009-0504-8939, University of Reading, corresponding author), Rohit Ghosh (0000-0001-9888-7292, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung), Marlene Kretschmer (0000-0002-2756-9526, University of Reading), C L Oatley (Daiseung Medics (South Korea)), Clare Oatley, Theodore G Shepherd (0000-0002-6631-9968, University of Reading) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 034007-034007 |
| Publication date | 2025-01-24 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/adae22 |
| OpenAlex | W4406789267 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 44 |
Arctic sea-ice cover has declined drastically in recent decades, notably in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). Previous research has linked low autumn BKS-ice cover to subsequent cold Eurasian winters. This lagged relationship was observed in 2020/2021. Using a causal network framework grounded in known physical mechanisms, we assess how strongly one factor directly influences another (i.e. the causal relationship) and apply this analysis to the anomalies from 2020/2021. We show that although year-to-year BKS-ice variations have only a minor impact on Central Asia temperatures, that causal effect becomes important for attribution and prediction when we consider the large long-term trend in BKS-ice cover. In particular, we find that Central Asia’s 2021 negative winter surface air temperature anomaly (relative to 1980–2020) can be fully explained by the BKS-ice anomaly. We further estimate that BKS-ice loss has more than halved the winter warming over Central Asia over the past 40 years. Hence rather than debating a cooling trend in Central Asia during winter, we propose shifting the focus to the influence of Arctic Amplification on anticipated warming trends. This study illustrates the efficacy of causal network analysis, which has implications for seasonal prediction and attribution of midlatitude winter anomalies
Arctic · Arctic ice pack · Central asia · Climatology · Cryosphere · Geography · Physical geography · Sea ice · The arctic · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Arctic and Russian Policy Studies · Environmental Science · Food Industry and Aquatic Biology · Geology · Oceanography
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |