Theodore G Shepherd
Biographic Data
| ID | 6644047 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Theodore G Shepherd |
| GIVEN NAMES | Theodore G |
| FAMILY NAME | Shepherd |
| SIGNATURE | SHEPHERD T G |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Reading |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6631-9968 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 13 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 3 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 13 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends describing low-probability outcomes using negative verbal probability terms such as unlikely, rather than positive terms such as a small probability. However, we propose that this choice of probability terms might undermine public perception and understanding of climate science. Across eight preregistered experiments ( N = 4,150), we find that participants perceive outcomes described…
Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies
Arctic sea-ice cover has declined drastically in recent decades, notably in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). Previous research has linked low autumn BKS-ice cover to subsequent cold Eurasian winters. This lagged relationship was observed in 2020/2021. Using a causal network framework grounded in known physical mechanisms, we assess how strongly one factor directly influences another (i.e. the causal relationship) and apply this analysis to the anomal…
Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines
The physical climate storyline (PCS) approach is increasingly recognized by the physical climate research community as a tool to produce and communicate decision‐relevant climate risk information. While PCS is generally understood as a single concept, different varieties of the approach are applied according to the aims and purposes of the PCS and the scientists that build them. To unpack this diversity of detail, this article gives an overview o…
Flammable futures—storylines of climatic impacts on wildfire events and palm oil plantations in Indonesia
Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must account for the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extremes, the probability of burning, and future decision making. To better understand how climate-drive…
Storylines of Maritime Continent dry period precipitation changes under global warming
The dry half of the year from May to October over the Maritime Continent (MC) has experienced unprecedented damages from forest fires in recent decades. The observed interannual rainfall variability during this period is closely tied to sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the equatorial Pacific (EP). Therefore, the future evolution of EP SST can be expected to influence the climatological precipitation over the MC. Whilst multi-model m…
The value of values in climate science
Storylines for decision-making
Storylines are plausible descriptions of past or future events and can be used to characterize uncertainty through discrete possible futures. They thereby bridge the gap between global-scale future projections and local-scale impacts, providing decision-makers with useful information about potential impacts in multivariate systems despite large swathes of missing data. Here we demonstrate the storyline approach using the case of household food se…
Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes
Wintertime extreme precipitation from cyclone clusters, i.e. consecutive cyclones moving across the same region, can lead to flooding and devastating socio-economic impacts in Europe. Previous studies have suggested that the future direction of the changes in these events are uncertain across climate models. By employing an impact-based metric of accumulated precipitation extremes, we show that projections of cyclone clusters are instead broadly …
Localness in Climate Change
Climate change is a global problem, yet it is experienced at the local scale, in ways that are both place-specific and specific to the accidents of weather history. This article takes the dichotomy between the global and the local as a starting point to develop a critique of the normative approach within climate science, which is global in various ways and thereby fails to bring meaning to the local. The article discusses the ethical choices impl…
Climate Scientists’ Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain
The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investig…
Storylines
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly appar…
The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change
Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the are…
Solar ultraviolet-B radiation and vitamin D
In Canada, cumulative exposure to ambient solar UV-B has a small but significant association with 25(OH)D concentrations. Public health messages to improve vitamin D status should target safe sun exposure with sunscreen use, and also enhanced dietary and supplemental intake and maintenance of a healthy body weight
Localness in Climate Change
Climate change is a global problem, yet it is experienced at the local scale, in ways that are both place-specific and specific to the accidents of weather history. This article takes the dichotomy between the global and the local as a starting point to develop a critique of the normative approach within climate science, which is global in various ways and thereby fails to bring meaning to the local. The article discusses the ethical choices impl…
Solar ultraviolet-B radiation and vitamin D
In Canada, cumulative exposure to ambient solar UV-B has a small but significant association with 25(OH)D concentrations. Public health messages to improve vitamin D status should target safe sun exposure with sunscreen use, and also enhanced dietary and supplemental intake and maintenance of a healthy body weight
The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change
Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the are…
Storylines
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly appar…
Climate Scientists’ Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain
The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investig…
Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes
Wintertime extreme precipitation from cyclone clusters, i.e. consecutive cyclones moving across the same region, can lead to flooding and devastating socio-economic impacts in Europe. Previous studies have suggested that the future direction of the changes in these events are uncertain across climate models. By employing an impact-based metric of accumulated precipitation extremes, we show that projections of cyclone clusters are instead broadly …
Localness in Climate Change
Climate change is a global problem, yet it is experienced at the local scale, in ways that are both place-specific and specific to the accidents of weather history. This article takes the dichotomy between the global and the local as a starting point to develop a critique of the normative approach within climate science, which is global in various ways and thereby fails to bring meaning to the local. The article discusses the ethical choices impl…
Storylines for decision-making
Storylines are plausible descriptions of past or future events and can be used to characterize uncertainty through discrete possible futures. They thereby bridge the gap between global-scale future projections and local-scale impacts, providing decision-makers with useful information about potential impacts in multivariate systems despite large swathes of missing data. Here we demonstrate the storyline approach using the case of household food se…
The value of values in climate science
Storylines of Maritime Continent dry period precipitation changes under global warming
The dry half of the year from May to October over the Maritime Continent (MC) has experienced unprecedented damages from forest fires in recent decades. The observed interannual rainfall variability during this period is closely tied to sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the equatorial Pacific (EP). Therefore, the future evolution of EP SST can be expected to influence the climatological precipitation over the MC. Whilst multi-model m…
Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines
The physical climate storyline (PCS) approach is increasingly recognized by the physical climate research community as a tool to produce and communicate decision‐relevant climate risk information. While PCS is generally understood as a single concept, different varieties of the approach are applied according to the aims and purposes of the PCS and the scientists that build them. To unpack this diversity of detail, this article gives an overview o…
Flammable futures—storylines of climatic impacts on wildfire events and palm oil plantations in Indonesia
Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must account for the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extremes, the probability of burning, and future decision making. To better understand how climate-drive…
Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends describing low-probability outcomes using negative verbal probability terms such as unlikely, rather than positive terms such as a small probability. However, we propose that this choice of probability terms might undermine public perception and understanding of climate science. Across eight preregistered experiments ( N = 4,150), we find that participants perceive outcomes described…
Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies
Arctic sea-ice cover has declined drastically in recent decades, notably in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). Previous research has linked low autumn BKS-ice cover to subsequent cold Eurasian winters. This lagged relationship was observed in 2020/2021. Using a causal network framework grounded in known physical mechanisms, we assess how strongly one factor directly influences another (i.e. the causal relationship) and apply this analysis to the anomal…
Climate change (11 works) · Geography (8 works) · Climate Change Communication and Perception (7 works) · Environmental Science (6 works) · Climate variability and models (5 works) · Climatology (5 works) · Atmospheric sciences (4 works) · Climate model (4 works) · Climate science (4 works) · Computer Science (4 works)