Past socio-political transitions away from coal and gas show challenges and opportunities ahead
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545536 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Judy Jingwei Xie (0000-0002-6591-2436, Imperial College London, corresponding author), Elina Brutschin (0000-0001-7040-3057, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Joeri Rogelj (0000-0003-2056-9061, Imperial College London), Iain Staffell (0000-0003-1012-7075, Imperial College London) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 064009-064009 |
| Publication date | 2025-04-25 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/add0c6 |
| OpenAlex | W4409791716 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 49 |
Transitioning away from fossil fuels presents substantial challenges, given the growing mismatch between pledges submitted to international climate negotiations and the mitigation strategies that limit warming to below 1.5 °C or 2 °C presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. The scientific case for phasing out coal-fired electricity is clear, and many countries are progressing towards this. However, despite widespread concerns about risks and trade-offs, natural gas is often considered a bridge fuel, and there is currently no progress towards phasing down its capacity. Previous work on the political feasibility of coal phase-out only considered limited socio-political factors, missing the importance of governance quality and policies supporting the energy transition. There is even more limited understanding of factors associated with gas phase-down, while Europe and North America fall behind trajectories required to limit warming below 1.5 °C. We use multivariate regression and clustering analyses on over four decades of data to investigate the drivers and synergies of coal and gas transitions. This reveals opportunities to overcome fossil fuel lock-in through renewable energy expansion, energy policy reforms, and power market restructuring. Countries with greater reliance on fossil fuel infrastructure and workforce face additional difficulties in phase out. Social factors such as higher belief in climate change are positively linked with more ambitious coal phase-out efforts. However, disentangling these links for gas remains difficult given the limited historical evidence of phase-down progress. We identify four archetypes (Coal Reliance, Gas Reliance, Limited Policy, and Transition Underway) that illustrate different ways countries have transitioned from coal and gas over time. These provide blueprints for potential future transitions in other countries. Recognizing the diverse social, political, and institutional factors that shape transitions can inform the design of politically relevant future scenarios
Archaeology · Business · Coal · Economics · Geography · Natural resource economics · Political science · Politics · Environmental Science · Global Energy Security and Policy
World Development Indicators
Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target
The political economy of coal in Poland
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways
Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation
Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum
National models of climate governance among major emitters
(In)justice in modelled climate futures
Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target
The effect of natural gas supply on US renewable energy and CO 2 emissions
A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios
Key factors for assessing climate benefits of natural gas versus coal electricity generation
Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns
The political economy of national climate policy
All roads lead to Paris
From the geopolitics of oil and gas to the geopolitics of the energy transition
Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions
Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion
Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
The environmental and economic effects of international cooperation on restricting fossil fuel supply
How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |