Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545987 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Matthew D Palmer (0000-0001-7422-198X, Met Office, corresponding author), Doug McNeall (0000-0001-5697-5163, Met Office), D J McNeall |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 034016-034016 |
| Publication date | 2014-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034016 |
| OpenAlex | W2088921075 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 26 |
We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (∼0.3 K dec ^−1 ) in GST can arise from internal climate variability and that these trends are generally an unreliable indicator of TOA over the same period. In contrast, trends in total OHC explain 95% or more of the variance in TOA for two-thirds of the models analysed; emphasizing the oceans’ role as Earth’s primary energy store. Correlation of trends in total system energy (TE ≡ time integrated TOA) against trends in OHC suggests that for most models the ocean becomes the dominant term in the planetary energy budget on a timescale of about 12 months. In the context of the recent pause in global surface temperature rise, we investigate the potential importance of internal climate variability in both TOA and ocean heat rearrangement. The model simulations suggest that both factors can account for O (0.1 W m ^−2 ) on decadal timescales and may play an important role in the recently observed trends in GST and 0–700 m (and 0–1800 m) ocean heat uptake
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Context (archaeology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Earth system science · Energy budget · Physics · Sea surface temperature · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Marine and coastal ecosystems · Geology · Oceanography
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Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,3 |
| Citation span | 2016 - 2019 (4) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |