Matthew D Palmer

Biographic Data

ID6820279
NAMEMatthew D Palmer
GIVEN NAMESMatthew D
FAMILY NAMEPalmer
SIGNATUREPALMER M D
AFFILIATIONSMet Office
ORCID0000-0001-7422-198X
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS5
TOTAL CITATIONS0
AUTHOR COUNT5
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2014
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2021
H-INDEX0

  • An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions

    Open AccessMatthew D Palmer, Catia M Domingues et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncertainty. Comparisons of GMSL rise over the 20th century based on deltas and linear trends (and their respective uncertainties) are consistent with past I…

  • Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change

    Open AccessKristin Richter, Benoît Meyssignac et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea…

  • Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles

    Open AccessLesley C Allison, Christopher D Roberts et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2019

    Observational estimates of global ocean heat content (OHC) change are used to assess Earth’s energy imbalance over the 20th Century. However, intercomparison studies show that the mapping methods used to interpolate sparse ocean temperature profile data are a key source of uncertainty. We present a new approach to assessing OHC mapping methods using ‘synthetic profiles’ generated from a state-of-the-art global climate model simulation. Synthetic …

  • Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator

    Open AccessMatthew D Palmer, Glen Harris et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2018

    We present a physically-based emulator approach to extending 21st century CMIP5 model simulations of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and global thermal expansion (TE) to 2300. A two-layer energy balance model that has been tuned to emulate the CO 2 response of individual CMIP5 models is combined with model-specific radiative forcings to generate an emulated ensemble to 2300 for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Errors in the emulated time series …

  • Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    Open AccessMatthew D Palmer, Doug McNeall et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2014

    We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (∼0.3 K dec ^−1 ) in GST can arise from inte…