An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions

Bibliographic Data

ID15547783
AuthorsMatthew D Palmer (0000-0001-7422-198X, Met Office, corresponding author), Catia M Domingues (0000-0001-5100-4595), Aimée B A Slangen (0000-0001-6268-6683, Utrecht University), Fabio Boeira Dias (0000-0002-2965-2120, University of Helsinki)
Year2021
Volume16
Issue4
Pages044043-044043
Publication date2021-01-14
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec
OpenAlexW3118407704
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited36

We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncertainty. Comparisons of GMSL rise over the 20th century based on deltas and linear trends (and their respective uncertainties) are consistent with past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and show good agreement with satellite altimeter timeseries. Sensitivity tests show that our estimates of GMSL rise are robust to the choice of reference period and central estimate timeseries. The methods proposed in this study are generic and could be easily applied to other global or regional climate change indicators

Altimeter · Climate change · Climatology · Econometrics · Gauge (firearms · Geography · Meteorology · Sea level · Sea level rise · Sensitivity (control systems · Series (stratigraphy · Tide gauge · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geophysics and Gravity Measurements · Mathematics · Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes · Geology · Oceanography

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