Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547102 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Klaus Bittermann (0000-0002-8251-6339, Tufts University, corresponding author), Stefan Rahmstorf (0000-0001-6786-7723, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Robert E Kopp (0000-0003-4016-9428, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey), Andrew C Kemp (Tufts University) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 124010-124010 |
| Publication date | 2017-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9def |
| OpenAlex | W2772006900 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 58 |
Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to 'well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels', projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14–21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 1.4–2.6 mm yr−1). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 2.0–4.0 mm yr−1)
Climate change · Climatology · Global temperature · Global warming · Interval (graph theory · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geophysics and Gravity Measurements · Mathematics · Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes · Geology · Oceanography
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| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |