Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547757 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Wan Ting Katty Huang (0000-0002-4292-2105, University College London, corresponding author), Isobel Braithwaite (0000-0001-5327-5612, University College London), Andrew Charlton‐perez (0000-0001-8179-6220, University of Reading), Christophe Sarran (0000-0003-0605-8839, Met Office), Ting Sun (0000-0002-9320-8921, University of Reading) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 034017-034017 |
| Publication date | 2022-02-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5 |
| OpenAlex | W4210808119 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 36 |
Climate change is expected to lead to changes in seasonal temperature-related mortality. However, this impact on health risk does not necessarily scale linearly with increasing temperature. By examining changes in risk relative to degrees of global warming, we show that there is a delayed emergence of the increase in summer mean mortality risk in England and Wales. Due to the relatively mild summer mean temperatures under the current climate and the non-linearity of the exposure–response relationships, minimal changes in summer mean risk are expected at lower levels of warming and an escalation in risk is projected beyond 2.5 °C of global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. In contrast, a 42% increase in mortality risk during summer heat extremes is already expected by 2 °C global warming. Winter attributable mortalities, on the other hand, are projected to decrease largely linearly with global warming in England and Wales
Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Confidence interval · Global warming · Mean radiant temperature · Relative risk · Statistics · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Mathematics · Ecology
Distributed lag non‐linear models
Health and climate change
Heat Stress and Public Health
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature
The representative concentration pathways
Attributable risk from distributed lag models
Impact of High Temperatures on Mortality
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
Heat Waves in the United States
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK
Climate change effects on human health
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,5 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2023 (2) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |