Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK

A pathway to sub-seasonal risk forecasting

Bibliographic Data

ID15550707
AuthorsWan Ting Katty Huang (0000-0002-4292-2105, University of Reading, corresponding author), Andrew Charlton‐perez (0000-0001-8179-6220, University of Reading), Robert W Lee (0000-0002-1946-5559, National Centre for Atmospheric Science), Robert A Neal (0000-0003-2678-6016, Met Office), Christophe Sarran (0000-0003-0605-8839, Met Office), Ting Sun (0000-0002-9320-8921, University of Reading)
Year2020
Volume15
Issue12
Pages124052-124052
Publication date2020-11-18
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/abcbba
OpenAlexW3099416067
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited1

Non-optimal temperatures, both warm and cold, are associated with enhanced mortality in the United Kingdom (UK). In this study we demonstrate a pathway to sub-seasonal and medium range forecasting of temperature-related mortality risk by quantifying the impact of large-scale weather regimes and synoptic scale weather patterns on temperature-associated excess deaths in 12 regions across the UK. We find a clear dominance of the NAO− regime in leading to high wintertime excess mortality across all regions. In summer, we note that cold spells lead to comparable cumulative excess mortality as moderate hot days, with cold days accounting for 11 (London) to 100% (Northern Ireland) of the summer days with the highest 5% cumulative excess mortality. However, exposure to high temperatures is typically associated with an immediate but short lived spike in mortality, while the impact of cold weather tends to be more delayed and spread out over a longer period. Weather patterns with a Scandinavian high component are most likely to be associated with summer hot extremes, while a strong zonal jet stream weather pattern which rarely occurs in summer is most likely to be associated with summer cold spells

Atmospheric sciences · Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Cold weather · Dominance (genetics · Excess mortality · Extreme Cold · Geography · Jet (fluid · Jet stream · Mortality rate · Range (aeronautics · Weather patterns · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Health disparities and outcomes · Demography · Geology · Oceanography

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