Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland

Bibliographic Data

ID15547776
AuthorsEvan de Schrijver (0000-0002-2679-0464, University of Bern, corresponding author), Sidharth Sivaraj (0000-0001-5320-6625, University of Bern), Christoph C Raible (0000-0003-0176-0602, University of Bern), Oscar H Franco (0000-0002-4606-4929, University of Bern), K Chen (0000-0002-0164-1112, Yale University), Ana M Vicedo‐Cabrera (0000-0001-6982-8867, University of Bern)
Year2023
Volume18
Issue9
Pages094010-094010
Publication date2023-07-17
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ace7e1
PMID38854588
OpenAlexW4384498185
LanguageEN
Citations received3
References cited64

Climate change and progressive population development (i.e., ageing and changes in population size) are altering the temporal patterns of temperature-related mortality in Switzerland. However, limited evidence exists on how current trends in heat- and cold-related mortality would evolve in future decades under composite scenarios of global warming and population development. Moreover, the contribution of these drivers to future mortality impacts is not well-understood. Therefore, we aimed to project heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland under various combinations of emission and population development scenarios and to disentangle the contribution of each of these two drivers using high-resolution mortality and temperature data. We combined age-specific (<75 and ⩾75 years) temperature-mortality associations in each district in Switzerland (1990-2010), estimated through a two-stage time series analysis, with 2 km downscaled CMIP5 temperature data and population and mortality rate projections under two scenarios: RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. We derived heat and cold-related mortality for different warming targets (1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C) using different emission and population development scenarios and compared this to the baseline period (1990-2010). Heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 312 (116; 510) in the 1990-2010 period to 1274 (537; 2284) annual deaths under 2.0 °C of warming (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 1871 (791; 3284) under 3.0 °C of warming (RCP8.5/SSP5). Cold-related mortality will substantially increase from 4069 (1898; 6016) to 6558 (3223; 9589) annual deaths under 2.0 °C (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 5997 (2951; 8759) under 3.0 °C (RCP8.5/SSP5). Moreover, while the increase in cold-related mortality is solely driven by population development, for heat, both components (i.e., changes in climate and population) have a similar contribution of around 50% to the projected heat-related mortality trends. In conclusion, our findings suggest that both heat- and cold-related mortality will substantially increase under all scenarios of climate change and population development in Switzerland. Population development will lead to an increase in cold-related mortality despite the decrease in cold temperature under warmer scenarios. Whereas the combination of the progressive warming of the climate and population development will substantially increase and exacerbate the total temperature-related mortality burden in Switzerland

Climate change · Climatology · Environmental health · Geography · Population · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Medicine · Geology · Oceanography

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