Future photovoltaic potential in India
Navigating the interplay between air pollution control and climate change mitigation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548024 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sushovan Ghosh (0000-0002-0536-0983, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, corresponding author), Dilip Ganguly (0000-0001-5282-0156, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi), Sagnik Dey (0000-0002-0604-0869, Central Pollution Control Board), Subhojit Ghoshal Chowdhury (0009-0000-9447-2567, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 124030-124030 |
| Publication date | 2024-10-29 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c68 |
| OpenAlex | W4403856934 |
| Language | IT |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 51 |
India has set ambitious solar energy targets to meet its climate commitments. However, climate change, already evident in the country, poses significant challenges to solar power generation. Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on future photovoltaic potential in India is essential. This study evaluates the mid-century (2041–2050) solar photovoltaic potential across Indian power grids using CMIP6 models under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate climate action with intermediate air pollution) and SSP5-8.5 (weak climate action with strong air pollution control). The results indicate that the nationally averaged photovoltaic potential is projected to decrease by −2.3 ± 0.6% (SSP5-8.5) to −3.3 ± 0.9% (SSP2-4.5) compared to the 1985–2014 baseline, primarily due to reduced radiation and increased temperatures. Additionally, cell temperatures are expected to rise by 1.5 ± 0.13 °C (SSP2-4.5) to 2 ± 0.11 °C (SSP5-8.5), leading to efficiency losses and additional 18 ± 5 d under SSP2-4.5 (26 ± 3 d under SSP5-8.5) of efficiency de-rating, particularly in solar-rich regions. This translates to a loss of 600 ± 160 GWh under SSP2-4.5 and 840 ± 100 GWh under SSP5-8.5, based on the solar generation status of 2023–24. Overall, SSP5-8.5 projects a smaller reduction in photovoltaic potential, it also predicts greater temperature-induced efficiency losses compared to SSP2-4.5, due to aerosol direct effect and weak climate action. Finally, this assessment highlights the need for combined climate and pollution mitigation efforts to boost India’s photovoltaic potential and secure a sustainable, resilient energy future
Air pollution · Climate change · Climate change mitigation · Climatology · Environmental planning · Environmental protection · Environmental resource management · Photovoltaic system · Energy and Environment Impacts · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies · Engineering · Environmental Science · Ecology · Environmental Engineering · Geology · Oceanography · Pollution
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Estimation of future changes in photovoltaic potential in Australia due to climate change
A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa
What drives historical and future changes in photovoltaic power production from the perspective of global warming
Cleaner air would enhance India’s annual solar energy production by 6–28 TWh
Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future
Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy
Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |