What drives historical and future changes in photovoltaic power production from the perspective of global warming
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15550890 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Robert Scheele (0000-0001-9060-7049, University of Cologne), Stephanie Fiedler (0000-0001-8898-9949, GEOMAR Technologie GmbH - GTG, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014030-014030 |
| Publication date | 2023-11-29 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d6 |
| OpenAlex | W4389119389 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 74 |
We investigate the drivers of global and regional changes in the potential for photovoltaic (PV) power production from the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (1985–2014) and until the end of the century (2071–2100), based on output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6). Our assessment separates regional contributions from changes in clouds, humidity, temperature, aerosols, and wind speed to the changes in PV power potentials for the first time. Present-day PV power potentials are adversely affected by anthropogenic aerosols compared to the pre-industrial, with a global decrease of the PV power potential by −1.3%. Our results highlight a globally averaged decrease in future PV power potentials primarily driven by temperature and humidity increases by −1.2% to more than −3.5%, depending on the scenario. Regionally different contributions of changes in clouds and aerosols cause heterogeneous spatial patterns in changes of PV potentials, with typically stronger (weaker) influences from clouds (aerosols) in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6. Our results imply that the uncertain response of clouds to warming and aerosol effects are hurdles in quantifying changes in the regional potentials for PV power production
Aerosol · Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Geography · Global warming · Humidity · Meteorology · Photovoltaic system · Energy and Environment Impacts · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Environmental Science · Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics · Ecology · Geology
Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6
A review of renewable energy sources, sustainability issues and climate change mitigation
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Estimation of future changes in photovoltaic potential in Australia due to climate change
A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa
Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change
Persistence of the high solar potential in Africa in a changing climate
How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections
Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy
Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |