Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548334 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Charles D Koven (0000-0002-3367-0065, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, corresponding author), Benjamin M Sanderson (0000-0001-8635-4624, CICERO Center for International Climate Research), Abigail L S Swann (0000-0001-8513-1074, University of Washington) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014017-014017 |
| Publication date | 2022-12-13 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/acab1a |
| OpenAlex | W4311271824 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 43 |
We explore the response of the Earth’s coupled climate and carbon system to an idealized sequential addition and removal of CO 2 to the atmosphere, following a symmetric and continuous emissions pathway, in contrast to the discontinuous emissions pathways that have largely informed our understanding of the climate response to net zero and net negative emissions to date. We find, using both an Earth system model and an ensemble of simple climate model realizations, that warming during the emissions reduction and negative emissions phases is defined by a combination of a proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions characterized by the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), and a deviation from that proportionality that is governed by the zero emissions commitment (ZEC). About half of the ZEC is realized before reaching zero emissions, and the ZEC thus also controls the timing between peak cumulative CO 2 emissions and peak temperature, such that peak temperature may occur before peak cumulative emissions if ZEC is negative, underscoring the importance of ZEC in climate policies aimed to limit peak warming. Thus we argue that ZEC is better defined as the committed warming relative to the expected TCRE proportionality, rather than as the additional committed warming that will occur after reaching net zero CO 2 emissions. Once established, the combined TCRE and ZEC relationship holds almost to complete removal of prior cumulative CO 2 emissions. As cumulative CO 2 emissions approach zero through negative CO 2 emissions, CO 2 concentrations drop below preindustrial values, while residual long-term climate change continues, governed by multicentennial dynamical processes
Atmospheric sciences · Carbon dioxide equivalent · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Cumulative effects · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Physics · Zero emission · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change and Geoengineering · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Environmental Science
Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions
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The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (Cesm2)
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
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Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
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Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
Negative emissions—Part 2
Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration
The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission
On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO 2 emissions during periods of net negative CO 2 emissions
Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO 2 concentration changes
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |