Evaluating sea ice thickness simulation is critical for projecting a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548342 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Xiao Zhou (0000-0003-3445-306X, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa), Bin Wang (0000-0002-8591-8528, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, corresponding author), Fei Huang (0000-0002-3709-5053, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | 114033-114033 |
| Publication date | 2022-10-27 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9d4d |
| OpenAlex | W4308484205 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 42 |
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, including sea ice area (SIA) retreat and sea ice thinning, is a striking manifestation of global climate change. Analysis of 40 CMIP6 models reveals a very large spread in both model simulations of the September SIA and thickness and the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean. The existing SIA-based evaluation metrics are deficient due to observational uncertainty, prominent internal variability, and indirect Arctic response to global forcing. Given the critical roles of sea ice thickness (SIT) in determining Arctic ice variation throughout the seasonal cycle and the April SIT bridging the winter freezing and summer melting processes, we propose two SIT-based metrics, the April mean SIT and summer SIA response to April SIT, to assess climate models’ capability to reproduce the historical change of the Arctic sea ice area. The selected 11 good models reduce the uncertainty in the projected first ice-free Arctic by 70% relative to 11 poor models. The chosen models’ ensemble mean projects the first ice-free year in 2049 (2043) under the shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario with one standard deviation of the inter-model spread of 12.0 (8.9) years
Antarctic sea ice · Arctic · Arctic geoengineering · Arctic ice pack · Arctic sea ice decline · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Cryosphere · Forcing (mathematics · Ice-albedo feedback · Sea ice · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Climate change and permafrost · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Increasing confidence in projecting the Arctic ice-free year with emergent constraints
Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss
Commercial shipping in the Arctic
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Highly cited | No |