Increasing confidence in projecting the Arctic ice-free year with emergent constraints
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15550831 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Bin Wang (0000-0002-8591-8528, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, corresponding author), Xiao Zhou (0000-0003-3445-306X, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa), Qinghua Ding (0000-0003-3634-0181, University of California, Santa Barbara), Jiping Liu (0000-0002-8338-8586, Albany State University) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 094016-094016 |
| Publication date | 2021-06-14 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0b17 |
| OpenAlex | W3172241619 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 42 |
An ice-free Arctic summer is a landmark of global change and has the far-reaching climate, environmental, and economic impacts. However, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models’ projected occurrence remains notoriously uncertain. Finding emergent constraints to reduce the projection uncertainties has been a foremost challenge. To establish a physical basis for the constraints, we first demonstrate, with numerical experiments, that the observed trend of Arctic ice loss is primarily driven by the Arctic near-surface air temperature. Thus, two constraints are proposed: the Arctic sea ice sensitivity that measures Arctic sea ice response to the local warming, and the Arctic amplification sensitivity that assesses how well the model responds to anthropogenic forcing and allocates heat to the Arctic region. The two constraints are complementary and nearly scenario-independent. The model-projected first Arctic ice-free year significantly depends on the model’s two climate sensitivities. Thus, the first Arctic ice-free year can be predicted by the linear combination of the two Arctic sensitivity measures. Based on model-simulated sensitivity skills, 20 CMIP models are divided into two equal number groups. The ten realistic-sensitivity models project, with a likelihood of 80%, the ice-free Arctic will occur by additional 0.8 °C global warming from 2019 level or before 2040 under the SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) scenario. The ten realistic-sensitivity models’ spread is reduced by about 70% compared to the ten underestimate-sensitivity models’ large spread. The strategy for creating physics-based emergent constraints through numerical experiments may be instrumental for broad application to other fields for advancing robust projection and understanding uncertainty sources
Arctic · Arctic geoengineering · Arctic ice pack · Arctic sea ice decline · Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climate sensitivity · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Global warming · Meteorology · Sea ice · Sea ice thickness · Sensitivity (control systems · The arctic · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Climate change and permafrost · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2022 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |