Regional disparities in the exposure to heat-related mortality risk under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548588 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yuwen Fan (0000-0001-8767-9084, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Liao Pei-Syuan (National Taiwan University), Eun‐Soon Im (0000-0002-8953-7538, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, corresponding author), Min‐Hui Lo (0000-0002-8653-143X, National Taiwan University) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 054009-054009 |
| Publication date | 2022-03-04 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5adf |
| OpenAlex | W4221054224 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 55 |
An increase in heat-related mortality risk has emerged to accompany the ravages of climate change, but its unambiguous assessment remains an onerous task, owing to the non-linear associations between the severity of hot temperatures and human body response. The present study assesses the future heat-related mortality risk under different levels of warming (1.5 °C vs. 2 °C) using the multi-models’ large ensemble simulations. In order to augment the robustness of the patterns for future changes in heat-related mortality risk, multiple indices representing the excess mortality risk solely attributed to higher temperature are estimated from different meteorological variables (maximum temperature, maximum wet-bulb temperature and mean temperature). The ensemble projections reveal a worldwide surge in heat-related mortality risk, albeit with a regionally diverse pattern. Although comparisons of the different indices show some quantitative differences, they provide remarkably consistent regional hotspots, thus amplifying the possible benefit of a mitigation equivalent to 0.5 °C less warming in the equatorial region. In addition to the severity of hot temperatures, the demographic changes evolving along the different shared socio-economic pathways also determine the exposure to heat-related mortality risk. Based on multiple indices and large ensemble simulations, this study contributes to the identification of regional hotspots in terms of the exposure of (the elderly) population to heat-related mortality risk, underscoring the necessity of regionally-tailored adaptation strategies
Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Economics · Environmental health · Excess mortality · Extreme heat · Geography · Global warming · Mortality rate · Population · Risk assessment · Robustness (evolution · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Medicine · Demography · Ecology
Impact of heatwave on mortality under different heatwave definitions
Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
High ambient temperature and mortality
A new scenario framework for climate change research
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios
Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden
Heat Wave and Mortality
Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
Projected Changes in Greater St. Louis Summer Heat Stress in NARCCAP Simulations
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Summer extreme temperatures in South Korea and their intensification under 3 °C global warming
Population ageing determines changes in heat vulnerability to future warming
Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe
Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways
Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Mortality in 13 French Cities During the August 2003 Heat Wave
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |