Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios

A multicountry time series modelling study

Dados Bibliográficos

ID23353252
AutoresYuming Guo (0000-0002-2351-4456, National Health Research Institutes, autor correspondente), Antonio Gasparrini (0000-0002-2271-3568, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, autor correspondente), Shanshan Li (0000-0001-5116-3588, Monash University, autor correspondente), Francesco Sera (0000-0002-8890-6848, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, autor correspondente), Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, autor correspondente), Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho (0000-0002-9732-1278, University of Technology Sydney, autor correspondente), Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva (Universidade de São Paulo, autor correspondente), Eric Lavigne (0000-0002-4971-8625, University of Ottawa, autor correspondente), Benjawan Tawatsupa (0009-0003-3108-4710, Ministry of Public Health, autor correspondente), Kornwipa Punnasiri (Ministry of Public Health, autor correspondente), Ala Overcenco (0000-0002-6970-9216, autor correspondente), Patricia Matus Correa (0000-0003-1844-6564, Universidad de Los Andes, Chile, autor correspondente), Nicolás Valdés Ortega (0000-0001-7609-4291, Universidad de Los Andes, Chile, autor correspondente), Haidong Kan (0000-0002-1871-8999, Fudan University, autor correspondente), Samuel Osorio (Universidade de São Paulo, autor correspondente), Jouni J K Jaakkola (0000-0003-4168-4683, Oulu University Hospital, autor correspondente), Niilo Ryti (0000-0001-5357-1251, Oulu University Hospital, autor correspondente), Patrick Goodman (0000-0001-9509-131X, autor correspondente), Ariana Zeka (0000-0002-9570-8831, Brunel University of London, autor correspondente), Paola Michelozzi (0000-0002-1646-2555, autor correspondente), Matteo Scortichini (0000-0002-6413-7706, autor correspondente), Masahiro Hashizume (0000-0003-4720-1750, Nagasaki University, autor correspondente), Yasushi Honda (0000-0003-2248-1629, University of Tsukuba, autor correspondente), Xerxes Seposo (0000-0003-0339-8213, Kyoto University, autor correspondente), Ho Kim (0000-0001-7472-3752, Seoul National University, autor correspondente), Aurelio Tobías (Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, autor correspondente), Carmen Iñiguez (0000-0002-5156-0732, Universitat de València, autor correspondente), Bertil Forsberg (0000-0002-0159-6657, Umeå University, autor correspondente), Daniel Oudin Åström (0000-0003-4742-417X, Umeå University, autor correspondente), Yue Leon Guo (0000-0002-8530-4809, National Health Research Institutes, autor correspondente), Bing-yu Chen (0000-0003-1010-5992, National Taiwan University Hospital, autor correspondente), Antonella Zanobetti (0000-0001-8170-4736, Harvard University, autor correspondente), Joel Schwartz (0000-0001-6168-378X, Harvard University, autor correspondente), Ngoc Dang Tran (0000-0002-5287-0265, Duy Tan University, autor correspondente), Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung (0000-0001-6872-3481, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, autor correspondente), Mary Lou Bell (0000-0002-3965-1359, Yale University, autor correspondente), Michelle L Bell, Ben Armstrong (0000-0002-3354-4376, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, autor correspondente), Kristie L Ebi (0000-0003-4746-8236, University of Washington, autor correspondente), Tong (0000-0001-9579-6889, Queensland University of Technology, autor correspondente)
EditoresJonathan Alan Patz
Ano2018
Volume15
Fascículo7
Páginase1002629
Data de publicação2018-07-31
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoPLoS Medicine (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1549-1277 • E-ISSN: 1549-1676
EditoraPublic Library of Science (PLoS) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629
PMID30063714
OpenAlexW2885527392
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas69
Referências citadas37

BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Environmental health · Excess mortality · Geography · Greenhouse gas · Population · Representative Concentration Pathways · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate variability and models · Demography · Ecology · Environmental Science · Medicine