Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548624 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alan Kennedy-Asser (0000-0001-5143-8932, University of Bristol, corresponding author), Oliver Andrews (0000-0002-1921-475X, University of Bristol), Dann Mitchell (0000-0002-0117-3486, University of Bristol), Rachel Warren (0000-0002-0122-1599, University of East Anglia) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014039-014039 |
| Publication date | 2020-10-26 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad |
| OpenAlex | W3096095414 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 36 |
In recent years, UK summer heatwaves have resulted in thousands of excess deaths, with both extreme temperatures and high humidity increasing health risks. Here, the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) are compared to observational (HadUK-Grid) and reanalysis data (ERA5) to quantify model performance at capturing mean, extremes (95th to 99.5th percentiles) and variability in the climate state and heat stress metrics (simplified wet bulb global temperature, sWBGT; Humidex; apparent temperature). Simulations carried out for UKCP18 generally perform as well as or better than CMIP5 models in reproducing observed spatial patterns of UK climate relating to extreme heat, with RMSE values on average ∼30% less than for the CMIP5 models. Increasing spatial resolution in UKCP18 simulations is shown to yield a minor improvement in model performance (RMSE values on average ∼5% less) compared to observations, however there is considerable variability between ensemble members within resolution classes. For both UKCP18 and CMIP5 models, model error in capturing characteristics of extreme heat generally reduces when using heat stress metrics with a larger vapour pressure component, such as sWBGT. Finally, the 95th percentile of observed UK summer temperature is shown to have ∼60% greater interannual variability than the summer mean over the recent past (1981–2000). This effect is underestimated in UKCP18 models (∼33%) compared to HadUK-grid and ERA5. Compared to projected future changes in the global mean temperature, UK summer mean and 95th percentile temperatures are shown in increase at a faster rate than the global mean
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Dry-bulb temperature · Ensemble average · Extreme heat · Geography · Heat stress · Humidity · Mean radiant temperature · Mean squared error · Meteorology · Percentile · Statistics · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Mathematics · Geology
Heat Stress and Public Health
On the Measurement of Heat Waves
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators
Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century
The role of humidity in determining scenarios of perceived temperature extremes in Europe
Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change
Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,75 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |