Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO 2 concentration scenarios
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548742 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Kaoru Tachiiri (0009-0006-1726-5584, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, corresponding author), Tomohiro Hajima (0000-0002-4828-5100, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Michio Kawamiya (0000-0001-7553-0522, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 124067-124067 |
| Publication date | 2019-11-14 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab57d3 |
| OpenAlex | W2989006945 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 30 |
Near-constancy of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) facilitates the development of future emission pathways compatible with temperature targets. However, most studies have explored TCRE under scenarios of temperature increase. We used an Earth system model (MIROC-ESM) to examine TCRE in scenarios with increasing and stable CO 2 concentrations, as well as overshoot pathways in which global mean temperatures peak and decline. Results showed that TCRE is stable under scenarios of increasing or stable CO 2 concentration at an atmospheric CO 2 concentration ( p CO 2 ) double the pre-industrial level. However, in the case of overshoot pathways and a stable p CO 2 scenario at a quadrupled p CO 2 level, the TCRE increases by 10%–50%, with large increases over a short period just after p CO 2 starts to decrease. During the period of p CO 2 increase, annual ocean heat uptake (OHU) and ocean carbon storage (C O ) (or cumulative ocean carbon uptake from the start of the experiment) exhibit similar changes, resulting in a stable TCRE. During the p CO 2 decrease period, after a sudden TCRE increase when p CO 2 starts to decrease, the OHU decreases and C O increases (relative to the p CO 2 increase period) balance each other out, resulting in a stable TCRE. In overshoot pathways, the temperature distribution when the global mean temperature anomaly cools to 1.5 °C reveals small warming over land and large warming over the oceans relative to the 1% per annum pCO 2 increasing scenario, particularly in some high-latitude areas of both hemispheres. The increase in TCRE with overshoot pathways decreases the carbon budget for the temperature anomaly targets in such scenarios. Our analysis showed a 16%–35% decrease in the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 °C global warming target, in comparison with the reference scenario with a 1% per year p CO 2 increase, for pathways peaking at the doubled p CO 2 level followed by decline to the pre-industrial level
Atmospheric sciences · Carbon cycle · Carbon dioxide · Carbon fibers · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Ecosystem · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Overshoot (microwave communication · Physics · Representative Concentration Pathways · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Atmospheric Ozone and Climate · Chemistry · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Materials Science · Ecology · Geology
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| Citations per year | 0.83 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2020 - 2026 (7) |
| Highly cited | No |