Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545888 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas L Frölicher (0000-0003-2348-7854, ETH Zurich, corresponding author), David Paynter (0000-0002-7092-241X, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), David J Paynter |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Pages | 075002-075002 |
| Publication date | 2015-07-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002 |
| OpenAlex | W1551320035 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 11 |
| References cited | 30 |
The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5-ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multicentennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5-ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions
Atmospheric sciences · Carbon cycle · Carbon fibers · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Ecosystem · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Atmospheric Ozone and Climate · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Geology
Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO 2 emissions
Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions
More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue
Increase of uncertainty in transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions after stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentration
Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO 2 concentration scenarios
The realized warming fraction
An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC
Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation
Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets
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Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics
The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
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Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2015 - 2022 (8) |
| Highly cited | No |