Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity

Applying the Unseen approach to Nordic countries

Bibliographic Data

ID15549252
AuthorsSebastian Berghald (0009-0005-4237-5155, Université Grenoble Alpes, corresponding author), Stéphanie Mayer (0000-0003-1473-8164, NORCE Research AS), Patrik Bohlinger (0000-0002-7299-3676, Norwegian Meteorological Institute)
Year2024
Volume19
Issue3
Pages034026-034026
Publication date2024-02-12
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad2893
OpenAlexW4391740836
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited42

The increase in heatwave intensity, causing heat stress and crop failures in many regions is a concerning impact of global climate change. In northern Europe, significant interannual variability previously prevented robust assessments of trends in heat extremes. However, with a large-ensemble seasonal hindcasts and archived forecasts dataset covering 1981–2022 multiple realisations of weather patterns can be pooled and assessed. What are recent trends of extreme temperatures? Has the risk for a 100-year heatwave event increased in Northern Europe? We apply the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) approach to assess the credibility of the model ensemble and use non-stationary extreme value analysis to quantify recent trends in extreme 3-day heatwaves in late spring and early summer (May to July). We find significant non-stationarity and positive trends in annual maximum heatwave intensity. We also show that heatwave volatility, i.e. the risk of clearly outstanding heatwaves, is highest in central Scandinavia

Climatology · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Intensity (physics · Climate variability and models · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Science and Climate Studies · Geology · History

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