Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549375 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Xiaomeng Yin (0000-0003-3990-1124, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guoyong Leng (0000-0001-6345-143X, Chinese Academy of Sciences, corresponding author), Linfei Yu (0000-0002-8255-0860, Chinese Academy of Sciences) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 044036-044036 |
| Publication date | 2022-02-21 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5716 |
| OpenAlex | W4213146191 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 77 |
Temperature impacts on crop yield are known to be dependent on concurrent precipitation conditions and vice versa. To date, their confounding effects, as well as the associated uncertainties, are not well quantified at the global scale. Here, we disentangle the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield under 25 climate scenarios. Instead of relying on a single type of crop model, as pursued in most previous impact assessments, we utilize machine learning, statistical and process-based crop models in a novel approach that allows for reasonable inter-method comparisons and uncertainty quantifications. Through controlling precipitation, an increase in warming of 1 °C could cause a global yield loss of 6.88%, 4.86% or 5.61% according to polynomial regression, long short-term memory (LSTM) and process-based crop models, respectively. With a 10% increase in precipitation, such negative temperature effects could be mitigated by 3.98%, 1.05% or 3.10%, respectively. When temperature is fixed at the baseline level, a 10% increase in precipitation alone could lead to a global yield growth of 0.23%, 1.43% or 3.09% according to polynomial regression, LSTM and process-based crop models, respectively. Further analysis demonstrates substantial uncertainties in impact assessment across crop models, which show a larger discrepancy in predicting temperature impacts than precipitation effects. Overall, global-scale assessment is more uncertain under drier conditions than under wet conditions, while a diverse uncertainty pattern is found for the top ten maize producing countries. This study highlights the important role of climate interactions in regulating yield response to changes in a specific climate factor and emphasizes the value of using both machine learning, statistical and process crop models in a consistent manner for a more realistic estimate of uncertainty than would be provided by a single type of model
Agricultural engineering · Agronomy · Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Confounding · Crop · Crop yield · Geography · Linear regression · Mean radiant temperature · Meteorology · Precipitation · Regression · Regression analysis · Scale (ratio · Statistics · Yield (engineering · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Mathematics · Plant responses to elevated CO2 · Ecology
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| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,75 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2025 (4) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |