Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

Bibliographic Data

ID23326786
AuthorsChuang Zhao (0000-0002-9535-8181, Peking University), Bing Liu (0000-0003-2874-2746, Nanjing Agricultural University), Shilong Piao (0000-0001-8057-2292, Peking University), Xuhui Wang (0000-0003-0818-9816, Peking University), David B Lobell (0000-0002-5969-3476, Stanford University), Yao Huang (0000-0003-4291-3484, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Mengtian Huang (0000-0002-1092-1562, Peking University), Yitong Yao (0000-0002-1713-6719, Peking University), Simona Bassu (Desertification Research Centre, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy), Philippe Ciais (0000-0001-8560-4943, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Le Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, CNRS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France), Jean-Louis Durand (Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, CS 80006, 86600 Lusignan, France), J L Durand (Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères), Joshua Elliott (0000-0003-0258-9886, University of Chicago Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637), Frank Ewert (0000-0002-4392-8154, University of Bonn), Ivan A Janssens (0000-0002-5705-1787, University of Antwerp), Tao Li (0000-0001-7895-4136, International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, 4031 Laguna, Philippines), Erda Lin (0000-0002-7340-479X, Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China), Qiang Liu (0000-0002-7668-6868, Peking University), Pierre Martre (0000-0002-7419-6558, UMR Laboratoire d’Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environementaux, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Montpellier SupAgro, 34060 Montpellier, France), Christoph Müller (0000-0001-9399-6676, Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany), Shushi Peng (0000-0001-5098-726X, Peking University), Josep Peñuelas (0000-0002-7215-0150, Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals, Cerdanyola del Valles, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain), Alex C Ruane (0000-0002-5582-9217, Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025), Daniel Wallach (0000-0003-3500-8179, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et Développement Territorial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France), Tao Wang (0000-0002-8367-8946, Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China), Donghai Wu (0000-0003-2423-7363, Peking University), Zhuo Liu (0000-0001-9356-8989, Peking University), Yan Zhu (0000-0002-4955-2880, Nanjing Agricultural University), Zaichun Zhu (0000-0001-5235-5194, Peking University), Senthold Asseng (0000-0002-7583-3811, University of Florida)
Year2017
Volume114
Issue35
Pages9326-9331
Publication date2017-08-29
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0027-8424 • E-ISSN: 1091-6490
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1073/pnas.1701762114
PMID28811375
OpenAlexW2747319455
LanguageEN
Citations received112
References cited29

Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.

Agriculture · Agronomy · Biology · Climate change · Crop · Crop yield · Food security · Geography · Global temperature · Global warming · Population · Yield (engineering) · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Ecology · Environmental Science · Plant responses to elevated CO2

  • Nato and Collective Environmental Security in the Mena

    Open Access•Ibrahim Al-Marashi, Amar Causevic•Journal of Strategic Security•2020

  • The crises inherent in the success of the global food system

    Open Access•Ville Lähde, Tere Vadén et al.•Conservation Ecology•2023

  • Transboundary flows in the metacoupled Anthropocene

    Open Access•Yingjie Li, Nan Jia et al.•Conservation Ecology•2023

  • Stunted from the start

    Open Access•H Randell, Clark Gray et al.•Social Science & Medicine•2020

  • Enfermedades emergentes y cambio climático frente al desarrollo del sector ganadero en África subsahariana

    Open Access•Francisco J Márquez, Julia Márquez–Constán•Revista de Fomento Social•2022

  • Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies

    Open Access•Gurdeep Malhi, Manpreet Kaur et al.•Sustainability•2021

  • The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change

    Open Access•Nick Watts, Markus Amann et al.•The Lancet•2019

  • Climate change has likely already affected global food production

    Open Access•D K Ray, Paul West et al.•PLoS ONE•2019

  • The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus

    Open Access•Paolo D’odorico, Keith F Davis et al.•Reviews of Geophysics•2018

  • Digitalization to achieve sustainable development goals

    Open Access•Maria E Mondejar, Ram Avtar et al.•The Science of The Total…•2021

  • Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

    Open Access•Sarah R Weiskopf, Murray A Rubenstein et al.•The Science of The Total…•2020

  • Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

    Open Access•Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller et al.•Nature Food•2021

  • ERA5-Land

    Open Access•Joaquín Muñoz‐Sabater, Emanuel Dutra et al.•Earth System Science Data•2021

  • Maize yield loss risk under droughts in observations and crop models in the United States

    Open Access•Guoyong Leng•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Bright spots in U.S. corn production

    Open Access•Emily Burchfield, Britta L Schumacher•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers

    Open Access•Luke Parsons, Yuta J Masuda et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Crop rotations sustain cereal yields under a changing climate

    Open Access•Lorenzo Marini, Audrey St-Martin et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Combined heat and drought suppress rainfed maize and soybean yields and modify irrigation benefits in the USA

    Open Access•Xiangyu Luan, Riccardo Bommarco et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Nutrition-sensitive climate risk across food production systems

    Open Access•Michelle Tigchelaar, Elizabeth R Selig et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  • Short-term extreme heat at flowering amplifies the impacts of climate change on maize production

    Open Access•Ning Luo, Nathan Mueller et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2023

  • Shifting cultivation geographies in the Central and Eastern US

    Open Access•Emily Burchfield•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Warmer temperatures provide little benefit in offsetting cold stress in Canadian crop yields

    Open Access•Tor N Tolhurst, Alan P Ker•Environmental Research Letters•2025

  • Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

    Open Access•Claudia Tebaldi, David Lobell et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2018

  • Increasing risk of simultaneous occurrence of flash drought in major global croplands

    Open Access•Shanti Shwarup Mahto, Vimal Mishra•Environmental Research Letters•2023

  • Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields

    Open Access•Hermen Luchtenbelt, Jonathan Doelman et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  • Crop-specific exposure to extreme temperature and moisture for the globe for the last half century

    Open Access•Nicole J Jackson, Nicole D Jackson et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Adapting agriculture to climate change via sustainable irrigation

    Open Access•Lorenzo Rosa•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Contrasting ecosystem constraints on seasonal terrestrial CO 2 and mean surface air temperature causality projections by the end of the 21st century

    Open Access•Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, A J Dolman et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Spatial difference of climate change effects on wheat protein concentration in China

    Open Access•Weimo Zhou, Yujie Liu et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Sustainable alternative futures for agriculture in India—the energy, emissions, and resource implications

    Open Access•Kaveri Ashok, Ramya Natarajan et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production

    Open Access•Diego Noleto Luz Pequeno, Ixchel M Hernández-Ochoa et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Effects of extreme temperature on China’s tea production

    Open Access•Yulin Yan, Sujong Jeong et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Amplified warming induced by large-scale application of water-saving techniques

    Open Access•Jing Fu, Shaozhong Kang et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Increasing exposure of global croplands productivity to growing season heatwaves under climate warming

    Open Access•Yongjun Chen, Yanzhu Chen et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  • Contrasting yield responses of winter and spring wheat to temperature rise in China

    Open Access•Di He, Shibo Fang et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Increasing maize yields in Northeast China are more closely associated with changes in crop timing than with climate warming

    Open Access•Yi Zhang, Yanxia Zhao et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Increasing concurrent exposure of global breadbaskets to reproductive heat extremes

    Open Access•Hongying Zhang, Xiaoge Yu et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  • Soil indigenous nutrients increase the resilience of maize yield to climatic warming in China

    Open Access•Xi Deng, Yao Huang et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Climate change to increase crop failure in U.S

    Open Access•Seung Min Kim, Rebecca Mendelsohn et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Potential benefits of climate change for potatoes in the United States

    Open Access•Chuang Zhao, Claudio O Stöckle et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Site conditions determine heat and drought induced yield losses in wheat and rye in Germany

    Open Access•Ludwig Riedesel, Markus Möller et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  • Planning maize hybrids adaptation to future climate change by integrating crop modelling with machine learning

    Open Access•Liangliang Zhang, Zhao Zhang et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

    Open Access•Luke J Harrington, Friederike E L Otto•Environmental Research Letters•2018

  • Increasing agricultural risk to hydro-climatic extremes in India

    Open Access•Tarul Sharma, Vittal Hari et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2019

  • Predicting spatial and temporal variability in crop yields

    Open Access•Guoyong Leng, John W Hall et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2020

  • Crop harvested area, not yield, drives variability in crop production in Iran

    Open Access•Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Gohar Ghazaryan et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Current and future adaptation potential of heat-tolerant maize in Cameroon

    Open Access•Lennart Jansen, Sabine Undorf et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  • Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

    Open Access•Cicero Zanetti De Lima, Jonathan Buzan et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Disentangling the separate and confounding effects of temperature and precipitation on global maize yield using machine learning, statistical and process crop models

    Open Access•Xiaomeng Yin, Guoyong Leng et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

    Open Access•Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Delphine Deryng et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2018

  • Rising temperature threatens China’s cropland

    Open Access•Jianghao Wang, Junjie Zhang et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  • Persistent and intensifying heat extremes in global deeper soils

    Open Access•Wenhao Bai, Ruifang Guo et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2026

  • Modelling potential range expansion of an underutilised food security crop in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Oliver Koch, Wendawek Abebe Mengesha et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2021

  • Agricultural Production Space Suitability in China

    Open Access•Yuxin Pan, Yuancheng Lin et al.•International Journal of…•2022

  • Global warming increases the risk of crop yield failures driven by climate oscillations

    Open Access•Linchao Li, Bin Wang et al.•One Earth•2025

  • Variations of Urban Thermal Risk with Local Climate Zones

    Open Access•Jiaxing Xin, Jun Yang et al.•International Journal of…•2023

  • A Comprehensive Evaluation of Food Security in China and Its Obstacle Factors

    Open Access•Yan Zhang, Xiaoyong Lu•International Journal of…•2022

  • Under-five mortality burden in low- and middle-income countries set to increase under future warming

    Open Access•Yixiang Zhu, Cheng He et al.•One Earth•2025

  • Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production

    Open Access•Jiahui Cong, Chuang Zhao et al.•One Earth•2025

  • The Effect of Prenatal Exposure to Climate Anomaly on Adulthood Cognitive Function and Job Reputation

    Open Access•Hong Tang, Qian Di•International Journal of…•2022

  • Land Suitability for Rice Paddy Cultivation in Lop Buri Using GIS Analysis for Sustainable Productivity

    Open Access•Chandhit Sawangnate, Worawat Srisawasdi et al.•SAGE Open•2026

  • Climate change skepticism and farmers' responses to CO2e taxation

    Open Access•Kahsay Haile Zemo, Mette Termansen•Ecological Economics•2026

  • Impact of climate change on farmers’ crop production in China

    Open Access•Xiaolong Feng, Dong Liu et al.•Humanities and Social Sciences…•2025

  • Water–energy–food nexus

    Open Access•Bhabesh Das, K S Kasiviswanathan et al.•Humanities and Social Sciences…•2025

  • Assessing the determinants of cassava yield and its impact on household food security in Nigeria

    Open Access•Adeolu Ayanwale, Adeolu B Ayanwale et al.•SN Social Sciences•2026

  • Changes in Climate Vulnerability and Projected Water Stress of The Gambia's Food Supply Between 1988 and 2018

    Open Access•Genevieve Hadida, Zakari Ali et al.•Frontiers in Public Health•2022

  • Climate change, health and environmental policy in Africa

    Open Access•Silvany Simone Tavares, Cindy J Xie et al.•Frontiers in Public Health•2026

  • The impact of climate change and biodiversity loss on the health of children

    Open Access•Phoebe CM Williams, Phoebe C M Williams et al.•Frontiers in Public Health•2023

  • Assessing the impact of climate extreme events and conflicts on internal displacement in Burkina Faso

    Open Access•Koffi Doh David Adzavon, Safietou Sanfo et al.•International Journal of Disaster…•2025

  • Trading for climate resilience

    Open Access•Victor Nechifor, Emanuele Ferrari•Nature Climate Change•2020

  • Temporal effects of climate and soil fertility‐mediated maize yield and its sustainability

    Open Access•Andong Cai, Deli Zhai et al.•Land Degradation and Development•2023

  • Limits to growth revisited

    Open Access•Arthur Lauer, Luis Llases•Ecological Economics•2026

  • Are Sacu countries self-sufficient in cereals? A dynamic panel analysis

    H J Sartorius von Bach, K M Kalundu•Agrekon•2022

  • Does wood bioenergy help or harm the climate

    Open Access•John D Sterman, William R Moomaw et al.•Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists•2022

  • Agricultural productivity and climate change vulnerability in West Africa

    Open Access•Salwa Bajja, Gabriel Mordzifa Sackitey et al.•Sustainable Futures•2026

  • Slow-onset events (SOEs) and future sustainability

    Open Access•Byomkesh Talukder, Keith W Hipel et al.•Current Opinion in Environmental…•2022

  • Rethinking the drivers of biotechnologies

    Open Access•Jack A Heinemann, Tessa C Hiscox•Current Opinion in Environmental…•2022

  • Food, energy or biomaterials? Policy coherence across agro-food and bioeconomy policy domains in the EU

    Open Access•Abigail Muscat, E M De Olde et al.•Environmental Science & Policy•2021

  • The multidimensional impacts of heatwaves on human ecosystems

    Open Access•Matthew Abunyewah, Thayaparan Gajendran et al.•Environmental Science & Policy•2025

  • Mediation and moderation roles of resilience capacity in the shock–food-security nexus in northern Ghana

    Open Access•Isaac G K Ansah, Bekele Hundie Kotu et al.•Ecological Economics•2023

  • Blended finance for agriculture

    Open Access•Tanja Havemann, Christine Negra et al.•Agriculture and Human Values•2020

  • Economic effects of projected decrease in Brazilian agricultural productivity under climate change

    Open Access•Marcos Spínola Nazareth, Angelo Costa Gurgel et al.•GeoJournal•2020

  • The agrarian question of climate change

    Open Access•Kasia Paprocki, James Mccarthy et al.•Progress in Human Geography•2024

  • Composite effects of human, natural and social capitals on sustainable food-crop farming in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Tuan Nguyen-Anh, Chinh Hoang-Duc et al.•Food Policy•2022

  • Temperature and children’s dietary diversity

    Open Access•Pallavi Rajkhowa, Suman Chakrabarti•Food Policy•2024

  • Climate change and within-country inequality

    Open Access•Elena Paglialunga, Andrea Coveri et al.•World Development•2022

  • Extreme heat and rural household adaptation

    Open Access•Xiaomeng Cui, Qu Tang•Journal of Development Economics•2023

  • A meta-analysis of factors affecting the adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMV) in sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Soulé Akinhola Adéchian, Mori W Gouroubera et al.•Sustainable Futures•2025

  • Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

    Open Access•Xuhui Wang, Chuang Zhao et al.•Nature Sustainability•2020

  • Brazilian maize yields negatively affected by climate after land clearing

    Open Access•Stephanie Spera, J M Winter et al.•Nature Sustainability•2020

  • The influence of geomagnetic flux on global crop yields and income

    Open Access•Evan Wigton‐Jones•Ecological Economics•2025

  • Early growing season temperature variation and fertilizer use among smallholder farmers

    Open Access•Musa Hasen Ahmed•Food Policy•2025

  • Sustainable food systems—a health perspective

    Open Access•Elisabet Lindgren, Francesca Harris et al.•Sustainability Science•2018

  • Exploring micro-environmental conditions of urban agrivoltaics

    Open Access•Caroline Merheb, Joshua S Caplan et al.•Sustainable Cities and Society•2026

  • Indicators of woody plants and soil in the urbanised environment of the Southern Urals (green zone of Ufa, Russia)

    Rida Sultanova, Regina Baiturina•International Journal of…•2025

  • Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Crop Production Efficiency and Farm Income in the Kouandé Region in Northwestern Benin

    Open Access•Olouwatogni Michaël Ayénikafo, N' Dri Yves Bohoussou et al.•Sustainable Development•2026

  • Deciphering the unequal impact of extreme temperatures on county sustainability in China

    Open Access•Shuyuan Wang, Huiming Zhang et al.•Environment Development and…•2024

  • The effects of climate change on food production in India

    Open Access•Mansoor Ahmed, Jing Shuai et al.•Environment Development and…•2023

  • Impact of climate change on food security in India

    Open Access•Biplob Bhuyan, Ranjan Kumar Mohanty et al.•Environment Development and…•2023

  • Agroforestry environment, potentiality and risk in India

    Open Access•Firoz Ahmad, Md Meraj Uddin et al.•Environment Development and…•2021

  • Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change

    Open Access•Wolfram Schlenker, Michael J Roberts•Proceedings of the National…•2009

  • Greater Sensitivity to Drought Accompanies Maize Yield Increase in the U.S. Midwest

    Open Access•David B Lobell, Michael J Roberts et al.•Science•2014

  • Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production

    Open Access•Corey Lesk, Pedram Rowhani et al.•Nature•2016

  • Farming the planet

    Open Access•Chad Monfreda, Navin Ramankutty et al.•Global Biogeochemical Cycles•2008

  • The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Open Access•Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W Jones et al.•Agricultural and Forest Meteorology•2013

  • Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security

    Open Access•Tim Wheeler, Joachim Von Braun•Science•2013

  • The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP)

    Open Access•Lila Warszawski, Katja Frieler et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2014

  • Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

    Open Access•Cynthia Rosenzweig, Joshua Elliott et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2014

  • Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation

    Open Access•D K Ray, Navin Ramankutty et al.•Nature Communications•2012

  • Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980

    Open Access•David B Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker et al.•Science•2011

  • Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

    Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel…•Climate Change 2014 - Impacts,…•2014

  • Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

    Open Access•David B Lobell, Christopher B Field et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2007

Unique citing works112
Citations per year14
Citation span2018 - 2026 (9)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedYes
Citation typesNeutral: 107

Tools

Open DOISci-HubOpen Access
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae