Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15550797 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Cicero Zanetti De Lima (0000-0002-9700-5435, State Street (United States), corresponding author), Jonathan Buzan (0000-0002-8199-3264, University of Bern), Jonathan R Buzan, F C Moore (0000-0003-3866-9642, University of California, Davis), Uris Lantz C Baldos (0000-0003-3893-0839, State Street (United States)), Matthew Huber (0000-0002-2771-9977, Purdue University West Lafayette), Thomas W Hertel (0000-0002-7179-7630, State Street (United States), corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 044020-044020 |
| Publication date | 2021-03-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f |
| OpenAlex | W3134185485 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 30 |
| References cited | 68 |
The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘ C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘ C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline
Agricultural economics · Agriculture · Agronomy · Baseline (sea · Climate change · Crop · Crop yield · Economics · Geography · Global warming · Natural resource economics · Staple food · Welfare · Work (physics · Yield (engineering · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Ecology
Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks
Mapping coexisting hotspots of multidimensional food market (in)accessibility and climate vulnerability
Growing global shipping costs increase population mortality in Africa
Occupational heat stress, heat-related effects and the related social and economic loss
On the agency of men and women in Uganda's dry Landscapes
The panacea of heatwaves
Extreme heat adaptation planning
Spatiotemporal changes in population exposure to heat stress in South Asia
Worker Protections at Sea
Decent Work in a Changing Climate
Climate Change and Human Mobility
The unruly edges of climate change
Physical effort during labour and behavioural adaptations in response to heat stress among subsistence farmers in Burkina Faso
Linking climate change perceptions, adaptive strategies, and food insecurity
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Viewpoint
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Thermal Comfort and the Heat Stress Indices
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base
Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
How are healthy, working populations affected by increasing temperatures in the tropics? Implications for climate change adaptation policies
Heat exposure in sugarcane workers in Costa Rica during the non-harvest season
Nonlinear increases in extreme temperatures paradoxically dampen increases in extreme humid-heat
Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture
Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming
Comparing estimates of climate change impacts from process-based and statistical crop models
Occupational Heat Stress Profiles in Selected Workplaces in India
The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
Viewpoint
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| Unique citing works | 30 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2026 (7) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 30 |