Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15550327 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Xianli Wang (0000-0001-9873-9767, Canadian Forest Service, corresponding author), Marc‐André Parisien (0000-0002-8158-7434, Natural Resources Canada), Steve W Taylor (Natural Resources Canada), Jean‐Noël Candau (0000-0001-9356-3950, Canadian Forest Service), Diana Stralberg (0000-0003-4900-024X, University of Alberta), Ginny Marshall (0000-0003-1763-7596, Natural Resources Canada), John M Little (Canadian Forest Service), Mike Flannigan (0000-0002-9970-5363, University of Alberta) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 025005-025005 |
| Publication date | 2017-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835 |
| OpenAlex | W2584860592 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 3 |
In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO _2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation
Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Environmental resource management · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Meteorology · Environmental Science · Fire effects on ecosystems · Landslides and related hazards · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Ecology · Geology
Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change
Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene
One extreme fire weather event determines the extent and frequency of wildland fires
Focus on changing fire regimes
Key elements of defensible space land use bylaw provisions in wildland-urban interface municipalities of Alberta, Canada
Impacts of Wildfire Smoke and Air Pollution on a Pediatric Population with Asthma
The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK
Governing Wildfire Risk in Canada
| Unique citing works | 8 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1.33 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2023 (4) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 8 |