A history of futures
A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 16765967 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Marjolijn Haasnoot (0000-0002-9062-4698, Deltares, autor de correspondencia), H Middelkoop (0000-0002-9549-292X, Utrecht University) |
| Año | 2012 |
| Volumen | 19-20 |
| Número | 6 |
| Páginas | 108-120 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2012-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Environmental Science & Policy (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 1462-9011 • E-ISSN: 1873-6416 |
| Editorial | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.002 |
| PMID | 23471143 |
| PMCID | PMC3587454 |
| OpenAlex | W2161255677 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 23 |
| Referencias citadas | 44 |
The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' and 'Learning success', we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing
Business · Economics · Environmental economics · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Futures contract · Management science · Scenario analysis · Scenario planning · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Water resources management and optimization
Integrative Scenario Development
Storylines
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation
Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands
Large storage operations under climate change
The Relevance of Urban Water Metabolism to Groundwater Governance
Understanding knowledge needs for Scotland to become a resilient Hydro Nation
Exploring the developmental possibilities of environmental activities
Framework of wastewater reclamation and reuse policies (WRRPs) in China
The role of evidence-based information in regional operational water management in the Netherlands
The transfer of Dutch Delta Planning expertise to Bangladesh
Exploring climate change uncertainties to support adaptive management of changing flood-risk
Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation
Re-thinking the present
Key concepts for Integrated Urban Water Management infrastructure planning
Future scenarios of commercial freight shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic
How geoengineering scenarios frame assumptions and create expectations
A pragmatic methodology for horizon scanning of water quality linked to future climate and land use scenarios
Preparing for disruptions
Putting adaptive planning into practice
Future foods
Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee
Introducing Adaptive Flood Risk Management in England, New Zealand, and the Netherlands
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years
Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis
Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making
Sinking deltas due to human activities
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?
A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios
XXXI. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground
Scenarios
Adapting to Climate Change
Assessing Future Ecosystem Services
Predicting, deciding, learning
Representing and using scenarios for responding to climate change
The idea of anthropogenic global climate change in the 20th century
Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise
Negotiating future climates for public policy
A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future
A method to explore social response for sustainable water management strategies under changing conditions
The tipping point trend in climate change communication
Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties
A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios
The Limits to Growth
The Year 2000
Changes of Climate
Systems Analysis and Policy Planning
| Obras citantes distintas | 23 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 1,77 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2013 - 2025 (13) |
| Velocidad de citación | recent |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 22 |