Evaluating policy impact under sparse and staggered adoption. A synthetic difference-in-differences application to EU rural development measures
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 17554662 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Roberto Esposti (0000-0002-1656-0331, Marche Polytechnic University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 116 |
| Pages | 102751-102751 |
| Publication date | 2026-01-06 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Evaluation and Program Planning (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0149-7189 • E-ISSN: 1873-7870 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2026.102751 |
| PMID | 41518687 |
| OpenAlex | W7119058494 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 37 |
This paper investigates how farmers respond to targeted policy measures under the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), focusing on whether voluntary adoption, often driven by private motivations, also leads to outcomes of societal interest. To address the methodological challenges posed by staggered and sparse treatment adoption, the study employs a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) approach. A theoretical framework is developed to distinguish between private and societal outcomes of policy adoption. The empirical analysis uses a balanced panel of Italian farms from 2014 to 2022 and focuses on selected second-pillar CAP measures. Results reveal that while some measures significantly affect private outcomes (e.g., farm income or productivity), their impact on societal outcomes (e.g., environmental indicators) is weaker and more volatile. The paper discusses key challenges in identifying and estimating effects with few, heterogeneous treated units and staggered policy uptake. While SDID is well-suited to such contexts, its real-world application may face practical limitations
Agriculture · Common Agricultural Policy · Empirical research · Impact assessment · Panel data · Policy analysis · Public policy · Rural area · Rural development · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Agricultural Economics and Policy · Agricultural Innovations and Practices
Synthetic Difference-in-Differences
What Do Farmers Want From Agri‐Environmental Scheme Design? A Choice Experiment Approach
Using Synthetic Controls
Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption
Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies
Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing
Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects
Evaluation theory tree re-examined
Simplistic understandings of farmer motivations could undermine the environmental potential of the common agricultural policy
Evaluation of results and adaptation of EU Rural Development Programmes
Lagged Explanatory Variables and the Estimation of Causal Effect
The Growth of the Evaluation Tree in the Policy Analysis Forest
Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method
Placebo Tests for Causal Inference
The State of Applied Econometrics
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |