Estimating the impact of new rail station openings on through-passenger demand
A difference-in-differences approach
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19337678 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Manuel Ojeda-Cabral (0000-0003-0343-2215, University of Leeds, corresponding author), Alexander D Stead (0000-0002-7836-3827, University of Leeds) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Publication date | 2025-11-07 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Transportation (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0049-4488 • E-ISSN: 1572-9435 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11116-025-10684-9 |
| OpenAlex | W4415984482 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 18 |
When a new rail station is built on an existing line, it causes an increase in in-vehicle time – typically, between 2 and 4 min – for all existing trips that now stop at the new station. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to investigate the impacts of these small time penalties on through-passenger demand. Cost-benefit appraisals of new stations in the UK have proven highly sensitive to the forecasts of through-passenger demand reductions. We conduct an ex-post analysis of the effect of a new station on through-passenger demand using a Difference-in-Differences approach. We fail to find a statistically significant impact of the station opening on through-passenger demand. If there are such demand impacts, our findings suggest that these are smaller in magnitude than the standard forecasting approach implies. More research is recommended to corroborate and generalise the findings to other contexts, as these have important implications for the planning and appraisal of new stations
Demand forecasting · Demand management · Rail transportation · Transportation planning · Travel time · TRIPS architecture · Railway Systems and Energy Efficiency · Transport and Economic Policies · Transportation Planning and Optimization
A spatial Difference-in-Differences estimator to evaluate the effect of change in public mass transit systems on house prices
The Estimation of Causal Effects by Difference-in-Difference Methods
How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?
Using a dynamic spatial difference-in-differences estimator to evaluate the effect of high speed rail and tourist transit service on tourism demand
Evaluating the spatial and temporal distribution of beltway effects on housing prices using difference-in-differences methods
New appraisal values of travel time saving and reliability in Great Britain
| Highly cited | No |
|---|