Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19418273 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James P LeSage (0000-0002-5887-6983, University of Toledo), Michael Magura (University of Toledo) |
| Year | 1990 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 127-135 |
| Publication date | 1990-01-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0735-0015 • E-ISSN: 1537-2707 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/07350015.1990.10509782 |
| OpenAlex | W2131856376 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 10 |
This article adapts to the regional level a multicountry technique recently used by Garcia-Ferrer, Highfield, Palm, and Zellner (1987) and extended by Zellner and Hong (1987) to forecast the growth rates in gross national product across nine countries. This forecasting methodology is applied to the regional level by modeling payroll formation in seven Ohio metropolitan areas. We compare the forecasting performance of these procedures with that of a ridge estimator and find that the ridge estimator produces forecasts equal to or better than those from the newly proposed estimators. We conclude that the ridge estimator, which does not reference the pooled data information introduced by the newly proposed techniques, may serve as a benchmark against which to judge the relative importance of this kind of information in improving forecasts
Bayesian probability · Econometrics · Economics · Estimator · Geography · Metropolitan area · Payroll · Pooling · Ridge · Statistics · Advanced Statistical Methods and Models · Computer Science · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Spatial and Panel Data Analysis · Artificial Intelligence
| Citations per year | 0.1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1996 - 2002 (7) |
| Highly cited | No |