Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

Bibliographic Data

ID19550322
AuthorsPaula A Bracco (0000-0001-6899-7386, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul), Edward W Gregg (0000-0003-2381-6822, Imperial College London), Deborah B Rolka (0000-0001-8732-8882, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), Maria Ines Schmidt (0000-0002-3837-0731, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul), Sandhi Maria Barreto (0000-0001-7383-7811, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais), Paulo A Lotufo (0000-0002-4856-8450, Universidade de São Paulo), Isabela M Benseñor (0000-0001-6889-7334, Universidade de São Paulo), Isabela Benseñor, Bruce B Duncan (0000-0002-7491-2630, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul)
Year2021
Volume11
Pages04041-04041
Publication date2021-07-03
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Global Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2047-2978 • E-ISSN: 2047-2986
PublisherInternational Society of Global Health (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.7189/jgh.11.04041
PMID34326991
OpenAlexW3185079705
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited36

BACKGROUND: Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil ́s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden. METHODS: We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes. RESULTS: A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care

Cohort study · Confidence interval · Diabetes mellitus · Environmental health · Life expectancy · Population · Risk factor · Years of potential life lost · Chronic Disease Management Strategies · Demography · Diabetes Management and Education · Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins · Medicine · Endocrinology · Gerontology · Internal Medicine · Pediatrics

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