Conservatism in human information processing
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 20042262 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Ward Edwards (University of Southern California, autor correspondente) |
| Ano | 1982 |
| Páginas | 359-369 |
| Data de publicação | 1982-04-30 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | CHAPTER |
| Periódico | Judgment under uncertainty (SOURCE_BOOK) |
| Editora | Cambridge University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1017/cbo9780511809477.026 |
| OpenAlex | W2990384283 |
| ISBN | 9780511809477 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 92 |
An abundance of research has shown that human beings are conservative processors of fallible information. Such experiments compare human behavior with the outputs of Bayes's theorem, the formally optimal rule about how opinions (that is, probabilities) should be revised on the basis of new information. It turns out that opinion change is very orderly, and usually proportional to numbers calculated from Bayes's theorem – but it is insufficient in amount. A convenient first approximation to the data would say that it takes anywhere from two to five observations to do one observation's worth of work in inducing a subject to change his opinions. A number of experiments have been aimed at an explanation for this phenomenon. They show that a major, probably the major, cause of conservatism is human misaggregation of the data. That is, men perceive each datum accurately and are well aware of its individual diagnostic meaning, but are unable to combine its diagnostic meaning well with the diagnostic meaning of other data when revising their opinions
Bayes' theorem · Bayesian probability · Cartography · Conservatism · Econometrics · Epistemology · Geodetic datum · Geography · Meaning (existential) · Phenomenon · Political science · Subject (documents) · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Mathematics · Misinformation and Its Impacts · Philosophy · Psychology
Board ethnic diversity, director age and firm value
Financial Markets and the State
On the Supposed Evidence for Libertarian Paternalism
Ignorância moral e o papel das virtudes
Architecture of the mind and libertarian paternalism
Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/Aids in Malawi
Bounded Rationality
Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading
The Effect of Experience on Context‐dependent Decisions
Information seeking on Bayesian conditional probability problems
Exploiting the Wisdom of Others to Make Better Decisions
Conceptual conservatism
Risk taking and information aggregation in groups
How do loan officers make their decisions about credit risks? A study of parallel distributed processing
Biases in belief reports
Representativeness in Foreign Policy Judgments
Pourquoi une sociologie compréhensive augmentée
Improving inference for social research and social policy
The trouble with overconfidence
How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction
Some Fundamental Problems in Experimental Psychology
Beyond discrete biases
Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases
Belief in the law of small numbers
Stereotyping
Weak inference with linear models
Judging probable cause
A Bayesian analysis of attribution processes
Partisan Bias and the Bayesian Ideal in the Study of Public Opinion
Economic Conditions and Party Competence
The "same person" heuristic
Falsifiability is not optional
Specious learning about reward and punishment
Evaluations and Expectations
When guessing what another person would say is better than giving your own opinion
Rational and nonrational elements in reactions to disconfirmation of performance expectancies
Illusions of efficacy
Strategic Deception and Counterdeception
Preference Falsification, Policy Continuity and Collective Conservatism
Information Aggregation with Random Ordering
Judgment under Uncertainty
Unsettled Thoughts
Processing Linguistic Probabilities
The Role of Probabilistic and Syllogistic Reasoning in Cognitive Organization and Social Inference
Cognitive Approaches to Judgment and Decision Making
On the Perception of Social Consensus
Integrating Verbal Information
Cognitive Algebra
A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
The priority heuristic
Bias in judgment
Confidence in judgment
Attention web designers
Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.
Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment
Subjective probability
Order effects in belief updating
The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments
Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference.
Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases
Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing.
Models of ecological rationality
The base rate fallacy reconsidered
A Theory Of Irrationality As A ‘Reasonable’ Response To An Incomplete Specification
Rational Polarization
The Paradox of Help Seeking in the Entropy Mastermind Game
Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending
Explicating Exact versus Conceptual Replication
Measuring the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak
Oversampling of minority categories drives misperceptions of group compositions
A description–experience gap in statistical intuitions
Updating without evidence
Quality of quality
Judgemental adjustment of initial forecasts
The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings
Social Judgment Theory
Domain-specific reasoning
Learning from Polls During Electoral Campaigns
The interpretation of uncertainty in ecological rationality
The psychology and rationality of decisions from experience
Strength of belief and risk
Bayesian inference
The Nuclear Arms Race
A Conflict Model for Strategists and Managers
Integration theory and attitude change
Drawing Valid Meaning from Qualitative Data
Rational Polarization
Errors in probability updating behaviour
Public service users’ responses to performance information
The Bias‐and‐Expertise Model
Endogenous Beliefs in Models of Politics
| Obras citantes distintas | 92 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 1,67 |
| Intervalo de citações | 1971 - 2025 (55) |
| Velocidade de citação | recent |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 52 |