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Are Intelligence Failures Still Inevitable

Bibliographic Data

ID20184401
AuthorsJames J Wirtz (0000-0003-2184-0239, corresponding author)
Year2024
Volume37
Issue1
Pages307-330
Publication date2024-01-02
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0885-0607 • E-ISSN: 1521-0561
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/08850607.2023.2214328
OpenAlexW4382501119
LanguageEN
Citations received5

There is a paradox that accompanies intelligence failure. Drawn from the work of Richard Betts, one of the most influential scholars in the field of intelligence studies, this paradox is based on two propositions. First, there will always be accurate signals in the “pipeline” before a significant failure of intelligence. Second, intelligence failures are inevitable. Combined, these propositions motivate much intellectual activity in the field of intelligence studies: to devise effective ways to use available information and analysis to avoid failures of intelligence, especially those leading to strategic surprise. This article explores how scholars have addressed these propositions to answer the question: Are intelligence failures still inevitable

Computer security · Epistemology · Intelligence analysis · Intelligence cycle · Knowledge management · Military intelligence · Political science · Strategic intelligence · Surprise · Computer Science · Intelligence, Security, War Strategy · Law · Philosophy · Psychology · Social Psychology

  • Beyond the Binary

    Open Access•Nikki Ikani•International Studies Review•2025

  • Swedish intelligence, Russia and the war in Ukraine

    Open Access•Michael Jonsson•Intelligence & National Security•2024

  • Introduction

    Shay Hershkovitz, Ofek Riemer•Intelligence & National Security•2025

  • The paradox of intelligence failures in the age of artificial intelligence

    Open Access•Erica D Lonergan•Intelligence & National Security•2026

  • Leveraging data science to investigate intelligence failures

    Open Access•Leonard Kern, Kristian Gustafson et al.•Intelligence & National Security•2026

Unique citing works5
Citations per year2,5
Citation span2024 - 2026 (3)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 5

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