Impact assessment and a fiscal recovery policy for tsunami risk
GIS and the general equilibrium approach in Hakodate city, Japan
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21248109 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Hajime Tanaka (0000-0003-3632-2901, Ocean Policy Research Institute, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Tokyo, Japan), Michael C Huang (0000-0001-5929-6641, Ocean Policy Research Institute, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Tokyo, Japan, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 48 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 1144-1160 |
| Publication date | 2021-06-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2399-8083 • E-ISSN: 2399-8091 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/2399808320977865 |
| OpenAlex | W3111055068 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 10 |
Given Japan’s substantial exposure to many kinds of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons, it has been a priority to invest in resilience, guided by evidence-based modeling. In 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami became the costliest natural disaster ever recorded. This study applied a geographic information system using assumed tsunami-affected data calibrated in a recursive computable general equilibrium model to perform an economic impact assessment and an estimated recovery budget. We simulated 100 years of tsunamis and a 10-year sectoral recovery package for the sectors related to the ocean economy, such as kelp, net fishery, squid, other fisheries, food processing, and recreation, with a capital-use subsidy policy regarding investment strategy. We found that the aqua sector is incredibly vulnerable and would not recover with the capital-use subsidy within Hakodate City’s financial capability. Nevertheless, the recovery policy could still ease output price changes. On the other hand, the recreation sector could recover to pre-disaster conditions, but at huge fiscal and social costs. Meanwhile, the food processing sector’s recovery could generate social benefits and have a spillover effect on other fisheries sectors. The application of geographic information system in tsunami-prone areas could strengthen the precision of economic analysis. Such evidence-based modeling could visualize the economic impact to assist policymakers and stakeholders in foreseeing disaster risk and implementing more effective building resilience measures
Business · Computable general equilibrium · Economics · Geography · Macroeconomics · Meteorology · Natural disaster · Natural resource economics · Political science · Recreation · Spillover effect · Subsidy · Climate Change and Sustainable Development · Disaster Management and Resilience · Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis · Ecology
| Highly cited | No |
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