Trade Effects of US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0

Bibliographic Data

ID21310330
AuthorsKazunobu Hayakawa (0000-0003-0032-9060, Bangkok Research Center, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO Bangkok Thailand, corresponding author)
Year2026
Volume64
Issue2
Pages121-142
Publication date2026-06-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Developing Economies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0012-1533 • E-ISSN: 1746-1049
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/deve.70012
OpenAlexW7118916752
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited32

This is the first ex‐post study of the effect of the additional tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration (Trump 2.0) on exports to the US. These additional tariffs were announced and started to be enacted in the first and second quarters of 2025. Nevertheless, countries may have continued to export to the US even after these tariffs were imposed, partly because of the view that President Trump could raise tariffs even further in the future. To examine this anticipation effect, we analyze monthly data on exports from 31 countries (excluding China) prior to August 2025. We find significant last‐minute exports just before the additional tariffs were imposed. After that, exports to the US significantly decreased, except for some steel products. We also find that many countries significantly increased exports to other countries, especially to smaller economies, after the US imposed additional tariffs

Administration (probate law) · Anticipation (artificial intelligence) · Commercial policy · Free trade · Mercantilism · Tariff · Trade diversion · World trade · COVID-19, Geopolitics, Technology, Migration · Economic and Business Studies · Global Political and Economic Relations

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