Kazunobu Hayakawa
Biographic Data
| ID | 5934963 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Kazunobu Hayakawa |
| GIVEN NAMES | Kazunobu |
| FAMILY NAME | Hayakawa |
| SIGNATURE | HAYAKAWA K |
| AFFILIATIONS | Bangkok Research Center, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO Bangkok Thailand |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0032-9060 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 31 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 31 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2014 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade
This study uses three types of data to quantify the impact of Trump 2.0 in Thailand. First, using product‐level trade data from January 2023 to July 2025, we show that the additional US tariffs have significantly decreased exports of automobiles and some steel/aluminum products to the US. In contrast, exports of auto parts and other items subject to additional tariffs do not change significantly. Second, using industry‐level production data from …
Introduction to the Special Issue on “Trump 2.0 and the Global Economy”
The author declares no conflicts of interest. Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study
Firm‐Level Impacts of Additional US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0
This study empirically investigates the effects of the additional tariffs imposed by the US in 2025 on the Taiwanese economy. The analysis is based on monthly sales data for Taiwanese firms from January 2023 to July 2025. Tariff effects are identified by comparing 2025 monthly sales of firms whose primary sales destination was the US in 2023 with those whose primary destinations were elsewhere. Consistent with the trend of national‐level exports …
Trade Effects of US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0
This is the first ex‐post study of the effect of the additional tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration (Trump 2.0) on exports to the US. These additional tariffs were announced and started to be enacted in the first and second quarters of 2025. Nevertheless, countries may have continued to export to the US even after these tariffs were imposed, partly because of the view that President Trump could raise tariffs even further in the fut…
Exploring the Role of Aid for Trade in Promoting Digital Services Trade
Digitally deliverable services (DDS) are playing a growing role in global trade, yet empirical evidence on how Aid for Trade (AfT) relates to DDS remains limited. This study examines the bilateral association between AfT and DDS using data for 29 donors and 134 recipients from 2005 to 2019 within a PPML‐based structural gravity framework. AfT is positively associated with DDS exports from donors to recipients, whereas AfT from EU institutions is …
Friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring in factories America, Asia, and Europe amid rising geopolitical tensions
Trade Effects of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict
We investigate the trade effects of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. Specifically, we examine the impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs) from Western countries on exports to Russia from neutral countries. To accomplish this, we investigate exports from 36 neutral countries. We found that, on average, neutral countries significantly increased their exports to Russia after its invasion. However, the increase in exports to Russia was smaller in…
Trade Effects of the US –China Trade War on a Third Country
ASEAN countries might function as transshipment platforms for Chinese exports, enabling the evasion of US tariffs imposed on China in the US–China trade war. In response, in November 2019, the Thai government established a watchlist for high‐risk products destined for the US market. This initiative mandates exporters to submit additional documents for thorough verification of the origin of goods. We empirically investigate the impact of this init…
The Wage Effect of the Covid‐19 Pandemic by Company Size
Large enterprises tend to perform better than small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in normal times. However, this general principle may not hold true during periods of instability, such as large‐scale pandemics. While large companies may be able to implement a work‐from‐home system more flexibly, SMEs may require government support. Against this backdrop, we empirically investigate the effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the labour market, es…
The trade effect of regional trade agreements in the presence of duty drawbacks
Before regional trade agreements (RTAs) come into force, some firms enjoy duty‐free imports using other tariff regimes such as a duty drawback (DD) regime. For such firms, the use of RTA tariff regimes will not provide additional benefits in terms of duty exemption. In this study, we examine the trade effects of RTAs in the presence of a DD regime. We theoretically demonstrate that firms that switch from a DD to an RTA regime will either increase…
Ripple effects in regional value chains
This study empirically examines the ripple effect of demand shocks on upstream suppliers in regional value chains. Specifically, we investigate how changes in US imports from China alter China's imports of intermediate inputs in machinery industries from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The analysis of China's monthly imports from the three supplier economies during 2018–2019 finds that the decrease in China's output exports to the US caused by the…
Negotiating over the rules of origin in regional trade agreements in Asia
In regional trade agreements (RTAs), member countries choose a common rule of origin (RoO) for each product. This study examines the factors that influence RoOs in four ASEAN‐plus‐one RTAs, which are agreements between ASEAN and four individual countries. One unique feature is that ASEAN as a whole negotiates with a plus‐one country, which may dilute the interests of individual ASEAN countries at large. Our findings are summarised as follows. Fir…
How does the reform of rules of origin affect firm performance in importing countries
This study empirically examines the economic impact of reforms on Japan's generalised system of preferences regarding firm performance. Specifically, we consider the relaxation of the rules of origin (RoOs) for knitted apparel in 2011 and 2015. We conducted a difference‐in‐differences analysis by defining the knitted apparel industry as the treatment group and the woven apparel industry as the control group. First, we demonstrate that Japan's tot…
Impacts of Tariff Rates on Input Source Choice
This study empirically examines how a reduction in input tariffs changes firms' choices between domestic and foreign inputs. In order to do so, we employ Indonesian manufacturing surveys from 2002 to 2010 and compute the share of imported inputs among total inputs at the firm‐product level. With this dataset, we examine the effect of preferential tariffs for ASEAN countries—that is, ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) tariffs. Our findings can be summar…
Impacts of Trade Liberalization in the Least Developed Countries
This study empirically investigates the effects of tariff reductions in a least developed country on its economy. Specifically, we focus on tariff reductions based on the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in Laos. First, we analyze how the reduction of AFTA tariff rates in Laos affects Laos's imports from AFTA member countries. Our main finding is that the reduction of AFTA tariffs in Laos does not significantly change Laos's imports. Second, we inves…
The Substitution Effect of Preferential Tariffs on Nontariff Measures
This study empirically investigates the effects of ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) tariffs on nontariff measures (NTMs) in Vietnam from 2012 to 2018. Our findings reveal the following: First, our gravity estimation demonstrates that although the reduction of ATIGA tariffs increases Vietnam's imports, the introduction of certain NTM types, particularly price control and finance measures, decreases them. Second, the reduction of ATIGA tariff…
Heterogenous impacts of trade liberalization on individual wages
This study empirically examines how trade liberalization changes individuals' wages, with evidence from Thailand. We primarily focus on the effect of Thailand's tariff reduction under the ASEAN free trade regime. We use individual‐level employment data for 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. We find that the reduction in AFTA tariffs in Thailand decreases the relative wages of the more educated and skilled workers. Thus, trade liberalization contributes …
Quantifying the costs of utilising regional trade agreements
This study proposes an approach for quantifying two kinds of costs related to the utilisation of regional trade agreements (RTAs). The first, called the “procurement adjustment cost,” represents the cost involved in meeting the rules of origin by adjusting procurement sources. The second is the additional fixed cost required to utilise RTAs, including document preparation costs for the certificates of origin. Applying our approach to Thailand's i…
The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade
Using monthly trade data from January 2018 to December 2019, we empirically examine the effects of the US‐China trade war on Taiwan's exports as well as imports. On the export side, the tariff hike in the US against imports from China may increase Taiwan's exports to the US, (i.e., the substitution effect). To investigate this hypothesis, we examine how US tariffs on goods from China affect Taiwan's exports to the US. More directly, we also explo…
Impact of Covid-19 on trade in services
How effective was the restaurant restraining order against Covid-19? A nighttime light study in Japan
Determinants of regional trade agreement utilisation
This study empirically examines the determinants of the utilisation of regional trade agreements (RTAs). We employ RTA utilisation data with rich country variations in 6 importing and 16 exporting countries in Asia. Then, we compute an ‘RTA utilisation rate’, which is defined as the share of imports under RTA regimes out of total imports of RTA‐eligible products. Finally, the RTA utilisation rate is regressed at a country‐pair–product level on va…
Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of Covid‐19 on international trade in medical goods
This study empirically investigates what kinds of countries imported and exported medical products during the COVID‐19 pandemic. We examine the bilateral trade values of medical products traded among 35 reporting countries and 250 partner countries between January and August in both 2019 and 2020. We shed light on four kinds of bilateral linkages, including political ties (captured by voting similarity in the United Nations), economic ties (exist…
Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era
This paper examines how COVID‐19 vaccinations change international trade. We analyze monthly level trade data from January 2020 to March 2022 that cover the bilateral exports from 40 reporting countries to 220 partner countries. Our findings can be summarized as follows. On average, the effects of vaccination rates in importing and exporting countries on exports were found to be insignificant. When considering the income level, we also did not fi…
Impacts of increased Chinese imports on Japan’s labor market
Location choice of multinational enterprises in China
Transportation Costs in Archipelagos
This paper empirically examines the effects of domestic transportation costs on product prices in an archipelagic country, namely, Indonesia. Specifically, we investigate the province‐level price of televisions. Our analysis reveals that maritime transportation is more expensive than land transportation. For example, a 1% increase in distance in maritime and land transportation increases the price of televisions by 0.08% and 0.02%, respectively. …
Impacts of increased Chinese imports on Japan’s labor market
Introduction to the Special Issue on “How Does Covid ‐19 Change the World Economy?”
Do Lockdown Policies Reduce Economic and Social Activities? Evidence from NO2 Emissions
This study empirically investigates how much economic and social activities were decreased by the implementation of lockdown policies during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. We measure the magnitude of those activities using nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions. Our observations include daily NO2 emissions in 173 countries from January 1 to July 31, 2020. Our findings can be summarized as follows. Lockdown policies significantly decr…
Labor Market Impacts of Import Penetration from China and Regional Trade Agreement Partners
Many studies have investigated the impact of imports, especially those from China, on the domestic labor market. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects of not only imports from China but also those from regional trade agreement (RTA) partners on employment in Japan. To this end, we decomposed the total import penetration into the import penetration under the most favored nation (MFN) and RTA regimes. To address the endogeneity concern …
Impacts of Covid ‐19 on Global Value Chains
We investigate the impacts of COVID‐19 on global value chains by examining bilateral trade in finished machinery products from January to June in both 2019 and 2020. We use the numbers of COVID‐19 cases and deaths as measures of the impact of the pandemic. Specifically, we investigate how these impacts affect value chains in three scenarios—countries that import finished machinery products, countries that export finished machinery products, and c…
Impact of Covid-19 on trade in services
How effective was the restaurant restraining order against Covid-19? A nighttime light study in Japan
Determinants of regional trade agreement utilisation
This study empirically examines the determinants of the utilisation of regional trade agreements (RTAs). We employ RTA utilisation data with rich country variations in 6 importing and 16 exporting countries in Asia. Then, we compute an ‘RTA utilisation rate’, which is defined as the share of imports under RTA regimes out of total imports of RTA‐eligible products. Finally, the RTA utilisation rate is regressed at a country‐pair–product level on va…
Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of Covid‐19 on international trade in medical goods
This study empirically investigates what kinds of countries imported and exported medical products during the COVID‐19 pandemic. We examine the bilateral trade values of medical products traded among 35 reporting countries and 250 partner countries between January and August in both 2019 and 2020. We shed light on four kinds of bilateral linkages, including political ties (captured by voting similarity in the United Nations), economic ties (exist…
Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era
This paper examines how COVID‐19 vaccinations change international trade. We analyze monthly level trade data from January 2020 to March 2022 that cover the bilateral exports from 40 reporting countries to 220 partner countries. Our findings can be summarized as follows. On average, the effects of vaccination rates in importing and exporting countries on exports were found to be insignificant. When considering the income level, we also did not fi…
Quantifying the costs of utilising regional trade agreements
This study proposes an approach for quantifying two kinds of costs related to the utilisation of regional trade agreements (RTAs). The first, called the “procurement adjustment cost,” represents the cost involved in meeting the rules of origin by adjusting procurement sources. The second is the additional fixed cost required to utilise RTAs, including document preparation costs for the certificates of origin. Applying our approach to Thailand's i…
The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade
Using monthly trade data from January 2018 to December 2019, we empirically examine the effects of the US‐China trade war on Taiwan's exports as well as imports. On the export side, the tariff hike in the US against imports from China may increase Taiwan's exports to the US, (i.e., the substitution effect). To investigate this hypothesis, we examine how US tariffs on goods from China affect Taiwan's exports to the US. More directly, we also explo…
The trade effect of regional trade agreements in the presence of duty drawbacks
Before regional trade agreements (RTAs) come into force, some firms enjoy duty‐free imports using other tariff regimes such as a duty drawback (DD) regime. For such firms, the use of RTA tariff regimes will not provide additional benefits in terms of duty exemption. In this study, we examine the trade effects of RTAs in the presence of a DD regime. We theoretically demonstrate that firms that switch from a DD to an RTA regime will either increase…
Ripple effects in regional value chains
This study empirically examines the ripple effect of demand shocks on upstream suppliers in regional value chains. Specifically, we investigate how changes in US imports from China alter China's imports of intermediate inputs in machinery industries from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The analysis of China's monthly imports from the three supplier economies during 2018–2019 finds that the decrease in China's output exports to the US caused by the…
Negotiating over the rules of origin in regional trade agreements in Asia
In regional trade agreements (RTAs), member countries choose a common rule of origin (RoO) for each product. This study examines the factors that influence RoOs in four ASEAN‐plus‐one RTAs, which are agreements between ASEAN and four individual countries. One unique feature is that ASEAN as a whole negotiates with a plus‐one country, which may dilute the interests of individual ASEAN countries at large. Our findings are summarised as follows. Fir…
How does the reform of rules of origin affect firm performance in importing countries
This study empirically examines the economic impact of reforms on Japan's generalised system of preferences regarding firm performance. Specifically, we consider the relaxation of the rules of origin (RoOs) for knitted apparel in 2011 and 2015. We conducted a difference‐in‐differences analysis by defining the knitted apparel industry as the treatment group and the woven apparel industry as the control group. First, we demonstrate that Japan's tot…
Impacts of Tariff Rates on Input Source Choice
This study empirically examines how a reduction in input tariffs changes firms' choices between domestic and foreign inputs. In order to do so, we employ Indonesian manufacturing surveys from 2002 to 2010 and compute the share of imported inputs among total inputs at the firm‐product level. With this dataset, we examine the effect of preferential tariffs for ASEAN countries—that is, ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) tariffs. Our findings can be summar…
Impacts of Trade Liberalization in the Least Developed Countries
This study empirically investigates the effects of tariff reductions in a least developed country on its economy. Specifically, we focus on tariff reductions based on the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in Laos. First, we analyze how the reduction of AFTA tariff rates in Laos affects Laos's imports from AFTA member countries. Our main finding is that the reduction of AFTA tariffs in Laos does not significantly change Laos's imports. Second, we inves…
The Substitution Effect of Preferential Tariffs on Nontariff Measures
This study empirically investigates the effects of ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) tariffs on nontariff measures (NTMs) in Vietnam from 2012 to 2018. Our findings reveal the following: First, our gravity estimation demonstrates that although the reduction of ATIGA tariffs increases Vietnam's imports, the introduction of certain NTM types, particularly price control and finance measures, decreases them. Second, the reduction of ATIGA tariff…
Heterogenous impacts of trade liberalization on individual wages
This study empirically examines how trade liberalization changes individuals' wages, with evidence from Thailand. We primarily focus on the effect of Thailand's tariff reduction under the ASEAN free trade regime. We use individual‐level employment data for 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. We find that the reduction in AFTA tariffs in Thailand decreases the relative wages of the more educated and skilled workers. Thus, trade liberalization contributes …
Trade Effects of the US –China Trade War on a Third Country
ASEAN countries might function as transshipment platforms for Chinese exports, enabling the evasion of US tariffs imposed on China in the US–China trade war. In response, in November 2019, the Thai government established a watchlist for high‐risk products destined for the US market. This initiative mandates exporters to submit additional documents for thorough verification of the origin of goods. We empirically investigate the impact of this init…
The Wage Effect of the Covid‐19 Pandemic by Company Size
Large enterprises tend to perform better than small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in normal times. However, this general principle may not hold true during periods of instability, such as large‐scale pandemics. While large companies may be able to implement a work‐from‐home system more flexibly, SMEs may require government support. Against this backdrop, we empirically investigate the effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the labour market, es…
The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade
This study uses three types of data to quantify the impact of Trump 2.0 in Thailand. First, using product‐level trade data from January 2023 to July 2025, we show that the additional US tariffs have significantly decreased exports of automobiles and some steel/aluminum products to the US. In contrast, exports of auto parts and other items subject to additional tariffs do not change significantly. Second, using industry‐level production data from …
Economics (23 works) · Global trade and economics (20 works) · International economics (18 works) · Business (16 works) · International trade (16 works) · China (10 works) · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts (9 works) · Free trade (7 works) · Geography (7 works) · Tariff (7 works)