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Metaphysics of risk and luck

Bibliographic Data

ID21364136
AuthorsJaakko Hirvelä (0000-0002-0036-0378, University of Helsinki Helsinki Uusimaa Finland, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume59
Issue2
Pages335-348
Publication date2025-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueNoûs (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0029-4624 • E-ISSN: 1468-0068
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/nous.12516
OpenAlexW4400057132
LanguageEN
Citations received3
References cited50

According to the modal account of luck it is a matter of luck that p if p is true at the actual world, but false in a wide‐range of nearby worlds. According to the modal account of risk, it is risky that p if p is true at some close world. I argue that the modal accounts of luck and risk do not mesh well together. The views entail that p can be both maximally risky and maximally lucky, but there is nothing which is both maximally lucky and maximally risky. I offer a novel theory of risk that fits together with the modal account of luck and demonstrate that it is both extensionally and formally superior to extant proposals

Economics · Epistemology · Extant taxon · Luck · Mathematical economics · Metaphysics · Modal · Nothing · Positive economics · Possible world · Range (aeronautics) · Engineering · Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics · Free Will and Agency · Philosophical Ethics and Theory · Philosophy · Psychology

  • A modal theory of justification

    Open Access•Jaakko Hirvelä•Philosophy and Phenomenological…•2025

  • Modal Luck and Buried Treasure

    Open Access•Oscar A Piedrahita•Pacific philosophical quarterly•2026

  • A unified theory of risk

    Open Access•Jaakko Hirvelä, Niall J Paterson•The Philosophical Quarterly•2024

  • Hard Luck

    N Levy•Hard luck•2011

  • Risk and Rationality

    Lara Buchak, Lara Marie Buchak•Risk and rationality•2013

  • Between Probability and Certainty

    Martin Smith•Between Probability and Certainty•2016

  • Moral Uncertainty

    Open Access•William Macaskill, Krister Bykvist et al.•Moral Uncertainty•2020

  • The foreign policy decision-maker simulation

    Open Access•George J Nozicka, G Matthew Bonham et al.•Proceedings of the 1974 annual…•1974

  • Moral Luck

    Open Access•Bernard Williams•Moral Luck•1981

  • Towards a Hybrid Account of Luck

    Open Access•Job A M De Grefte•Pacific philosophical quarterly•2020

  • The Cake Theory of Credit

    Jaako Hirvelä, Maria Lasonen‐aarnio et al.•Philosophical Topics•2021

  • Epistemic Luck and Epistemic Risk

    Open Access•Jesús Navarro Reyes•Erkenntnis•2023

  • Punishment and Responsibility

    H L A Hart, John Gardner•Punishment and responsibility•2008

  • Luck as an epistemic notion

    Open Access•Asbjørn Steglich-Petersen•Synthese•2010

  • Epistemic anxiety and epistemic risk

    Open Access•Liz Newton, Lilith Newton•Synthese•2022

  • Why epistemologists are so down on their luck

    Open Access•Wayne D Riggs, Wayne Riggs•Synthese•2007

  • Global safety

    Open Access•Jaakko Hirvelä•Synthese•2019

  • Anti-luck epistemology

    Open Access•Duncan Pritchard•Synthese•2007

  • In defense of an epistemic probability account of luck

    Open Access•Gregory Stoutenburg•Synthese•2019

  • Relevance and risk

    Open Access•Greg Gardiner•Synthese•2021

  • Thinking about luck

    Open Access•E J Coffman•Synthese•2007

  • The modal account of luck revisited

    Open Access•J Adam Carter, Martin Peterson•Synthese•2017

  • Truth, knowledge, and the standard of proof in criminal law

    Open Access•Clayton Littlejohn•Synthese•2020

  • Attitudes De Dicto and De Se

    David Lewis•The Philosophical Review•1979

  • Varieties of Risk

    Open Access•Philip A Ebert, Martin Smith et al.•Philosophy and Phenomenological…•2019

  • The Inescapability of Gettier Problems

    Linda Zagzebski•The Philosophical Quarterly•1994

Unique citing works3
Citations per year1,5
Citation span2024 - 2026 (3)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 2

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Open DOIOpen Access
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