Predictive Model for Covid-19 Incidence in a Medium-Sized Municipality in Brazil (Ponta Grossa, Paraná)
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21432903 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Camila Marinelli Martins (0000-0002-8425-5769, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, Brasil; Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, Brasil; AAC&T Consultoria em Pesquisa LTDA, Brasil), Ricardo Zanetti Gomes (0000-0002-9651-8298, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa), Erildo Vicente Muller (0000-0003-4643-056X, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa), Pollyanna Kassia De Oliveira Borges (0000-0002-9390-0459, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa), Carlos Eduardo Coradassi (0000-0002-9812-0152, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa), Eduarda Mirela da Silva Montiel (0000-0001-9149-4197, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 29 |
| Publication date | 2020-01-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Texto & Contexto - Enfermagem (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0104-0707 • E-ISSN: 1980-265X |
| Publisher | FapUNIFESP (SciELO) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1590/1980-265x-tce-2020-0154 |
| OpenAlex | W3046781067 |
| SciELO | S0104-07072020000100204 |
| Language | IT |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 5 |
Objective: to produce a predictive model for the incidence of COVID-19 cases, severity and deaths in Ponta Grossa, state of Paraná. Methods: this is an ecological study with data from confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported between March 21, 2020 and May 3, 2020 in Ponta Grossa and proportion of severity, hospitalization and lethality in the literature. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model was developed, and reproduction rate (R0), duration of epidemic, peak period, number of cases, hospitalized patients and deaths were estimated. Deaths were calculated by age group and in three scenarios: at day 24, at day 34, and at day 44 of the epidemic. Results: in the three scenarios assessed in this study, the variation in the number of cases was explained by an exponential curve (r2=0.74, 0.79 and 0.89, respectively, p
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Disease · Ecological study · Geography · Incidence (geometry) · Population · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) · COVID-19 and Mental Health · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Education during COVID-19 pandemic · Internal Medicine · Mathematics · Medicine · Virology
| Citations per year | 0.6 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2021 - 2022 (2) |
| Highly cited | No |