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Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children

A 16‐year longitudinal study

Bibliographic Data

ID21444985
AuthorsEmily Lowthian (0000-0001-9362-0046, Department of Education and Childhood Studies, School of Social Sciences Swansea University Swansea UK, corresponding author), Stuart Bedston (0000-0002-5635-5957, Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science Swansea University Swansea UK), Olivia Deavall (Department of Education and Childhood Studies, School of Social Sciences Swansea University Swansea UK), Timothy Crick (0000-0001-5196-9389, Department of Education and Childhood Studies, School of Social Sciences Swansea University Swansea UK), Tom Crick (Department of Education and Childhood Studies, School of Social Sciences Swansea University Swansea UK), Lucy Griffiths (0000-0001-9230-624X, Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science Swansea University Swansea UK), Ashley Akbari (0000-0003-0814-0801, Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science Swansea University Swansea UK), A R Lee (0000-0001-8408-5221, Swansea University), Alex Lee (0000-0001-7916-024X, Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science Swansea University Swansea UK), Gemma Hammerton (0000-0002-7781-3857, Centre for Academic Mental Health, Population Health Sciences Bristol University Bristol UK), Jon Heron (0000-0001-6199-5644, Centre for Academic Mental Health, Population Health Sciences Bristol University Bristol UK), Donald Forrester (0000-0002-2293-5718, CASCADE, Cardiff University, Spark Cardiff UK)
Year2026
Publication date2026-04-14
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueBritish Educational Research Journal (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0141-1926 • E-ISSN: 1469-3518
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1002/berj.70155
OpenAlexW7154475846
LanguageEN
References cited64

Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood—termed care‐experienced—can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care‐experience and attainment. We used anonymised, individual‐level, population‐scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000 and 2003. Children were followed until their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three‐step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school‐related factors—school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion—mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16. We identified seven care‐experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School‐related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home. These findings highlight the complexity of care experiences and their association with attainment. We advocate for improved support in Wales, including implementing the Virtual School Model and broader definitions to ensure inclusive support for children who may be hidden to schools

Academic achievement · Association (psychology) · Day care · Educational attainment · Latent class model · Linkage (software) · Longitudinal study · Mediation · Social class · Child Abuse and Trauma · Child Welfare and Adoption · Early Childhood Education and Development

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