Revisiting the confidence-accuracy relationship in eyewitness identification
A metacognitive perspective
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21602243 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Chenxin Yu (0009-0009-0767-954X, University of Utah, corresponding author), Kara N Moore (0000-0002-7289-4934, University of Utah) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Pages | 1-22 |
| Publication date | 2026-06-22 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Memory (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0965-8211 • E-ISSN: 1464-0686 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/09658211.2026.2691574 |
| PMID | 42331394 |
| OpenAlex | W7165573184 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 171 |
The fallibility of eyewitness memory has been demonstrated in decades of research. This presents a challenge to legal practitioners and triers of fact when evaluating the trustworthiness of eyewitness identification. A witness's initial confidence in their identification decision is a potentially useful indicator of accuracy. While the field generally agrees that there is a meaningful relationship between confidence and accuracy, uncertainty remains about whether high confidence can serve as a direct indicator of accuracy in real-world legal settings. In this review, we integrate findings on the confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship in eyewitness identification research with prevailing metacognitive theories of retrospective confidence and individual differences. We argue for greater consideration of the influence of individual-level factors - particularly metacognitive bias and domain-specific competence, which influence how effectively people monitor their memory - on the CA relationship. Understanding these variables may help answer the key question facing courts: given a witness's expressed confidence, how likely is it that their identification is correct? We discuss how measurement approaches from metacognitive research can be used to clarify when, and for whom, confidence reliably predicts accuracy and suggest future directions of research that may help better understand this question
Cognition · Metacognition · Metamemory · Perspective-taking · Face Recognition and Perception · Identity, Memory, and Therapy · Memory Processes and Influences
Two-stage dynamic signal detection
Type 2 tasks in the theory of signal detectability
Lack of group-to-individual generalizability is a threat to human subjects research
How to measure metacognition
A model for recognition memory
Monitoring one's own knowledge during study
Self-evaluation of decision-making
Planting misinformation in the human mind
The Dunning–Kruger Effect
The secret life of fluency
The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy
Individual differences in rational thought.
Self-Regulated Learning
Relating Introspective Accuracy to Individual Differences in Brain Structure
Remembering Mistaken for Knowing
Eyewitness Confidence Does Not Necessarily Indicate Identification Accuracy
Investigating the ease-of-retrieval effect in an eyewitness context
Eyewitness memory is reliable, but the criminal justice system is not
Emotional metacognition
Estimation of eyewitness error rates in fair and biased lineups
Estimator variables can matter even for high-confidence lineup identifications made under pristine conditions
Eyewitness confidence and decision time reflect identification accuracy in actual police lineups
Unskilled, underperforming, or unaware? Testing three accounts of individual differences in metacognitive monitoring
Prior expectations facilitate metacognition for perceptual decision
A signal detection theoretic approach for estimating metacognitive sensitivity from confidence ratings
Unskilled and unaware of it
Positive and negative touch differentially modulate metacognitive memory judgements for emotional stimuli
Psychological science on eyewitness identification and its impact on police practices and policies
Applied eyewitness-testimony research
Error rates for high confidence eyewitness identifications
Skilled or unskilled, but still unaware of it
Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance
Evaluating the claim that high confidence implies high accuracy in eyewitness identification
Pitfalls in using eyewitness confidence to diagnose the accuracy of an individual identification decision
Metacognition during unfamiliar face matching
Choosing, confidence, and accuracy
A rational model of the Dunning-Kruger effect supports insensitivity to evidence in low performers
The Dunning-Kruger effect revisited
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |