Can Latin American Voters see the Future
Citizen Forecasting in Argentina
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21817202 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Brian Thompson-Collart (0009-0001-1569-1786, Université Laval, corresponding author), Yannick Dufresne (0000-0002-6211-2193), Evelyne Brie (0000-0001-9549-1794) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Pages | e31348 |
| Publication date | 2024-03-19 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1852-9003 • E-ISSN: 2660-700X |
| Publisher | Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca (PUBLISHER • ES) |
| DOI | 10.14201/rlop.31348 |
| OpenAlex | W4392961157 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 37 |
The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces
Latin Americans · Political science · Latin American socio-political dynamics · Law · Politics and Society in Latin America · Social Media and Politics
Choosing the Lesser Evil
Against all Odds
Echo Chamber or Public Sphere? Predicting Political Orientation and Measuring Political Homophily in Twitter Using Big Data
Redes sociales, inteligencia computacional y predicción electoral
Argentinian Elections
Vote Buying in Argentina
Social network sites and acquiring current affairs knowledge
Recalibrating Ratings for a New Normal
A Technocratic View of Election Forecasting
Household-Based Clientelism
How Do Voters Form Expectations about the Parties' Chances of Winning the Election
Knowing Versus Caring
The Influence of Partisan Motivated Reasoning on Public Opinion
With a little help from my friends? The impact of social networks on citizens' forecasting ability
Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions
Citizen Forecasting 2020
Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems
Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys
Echoing certainty in uncertain times
"Wisdom of crowds"? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens' local expectations
Vote expectations at the next level. Trying to predict vote shares in the 2013 German federal election by polling expectations
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |