Does ignoring transmission dynamics lead to underestimation of the impact of interventions against mosquito-borne disease
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21879383 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sean Cavany (0000-0002-2559-797X, University of Notre Dame, corresponding author), John H Huber (0000-0001-5245-5187, University of Notre Dame, corresponding author), Annaliese Wieler (0000-0003-1352-7509, University of Notre Dame), Quan Minh Tran (0000-0003-3337-161X, University of Notre Dame), Manar Alkuzweny (0000-0002-6069-5778, University of Notre Dame), Margaret Elliott (University of Notre Dame), Guido España (0000-0002-9915-8056, University of Notre Dame), Sean M Moore (0000-0001-9062-6100, University of Notre Dame), T Alex Perkins (0000-0002-7518-4014, University of Notre Dame, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 8 |
| Pages | e012169 |
| Publication date | 2023-08-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | BMJ Global Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908 |
| Publisher | BMJ (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012169 |
| PMID | 37652566 |
| OpenAlex | W4386334085 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 26 |
New vector-control technologies to fight mosquito-borne diseases are urgently needed, the adoption of which depends on efficacy estimates from large-scale cluster-randomised trials (CRTs). The release of Wolbachia -infected mosquitoes is one promising strategy to curb dengue virus (DENV) transmission, and a recent CRT reported impressive reductions in dengue incidence following the release of these mosquitoes. Such trials can be affected by multiple sources of bias, however. We used mathematical models of DENV transmission during a CRT of Wolbachia -infected mosquitoes to explore three such biases: human movement, mosquito movement and coupled transmission dynamics between trial arms. We show that failure to account for each of these biases would lead to underestimated efficacy, and that the majority of this underestimation is due to a heretofore unrecognised bias caused by transmission coupling. Taken together, our findings suggest that Wolbachia -infected mosquitoes could be even more promising than the recent CRT suggested. By emphasising the importance of accounting for transmission coupling between arms, which requires a mathematical model, we highlight the key role that models can play in interpreting and extrapolating the results from trials of vector control interventions
Biology · Disease · Environmental health · Psychological intervention · Public health · Computer Science · Malaria Research and Control · Medicine · Mosquito-borne diseases and control · Viral Infections and Vectors
| Citations per year | 0.33 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2023 - 2023 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |