The near-miss effect in flood risk estimation
A survey-based approach to model private mitigation intentions into agent-based models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22025331 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alessandro Bogani (0000-0002-0723-9255, University of Trento), Giulio Faccenda (0000-0002-3022-5695, University of Milano-Bicocca, corresponding author), Paolo Riva (0000-0002-9855-994X, University of Milano-Bicocca), Juliette Richetin (0000-0002-9175-5892, University of Milano-Bicocca), Luca Pancani (0000-0002-7834-3826, University of Milano-Bicocca), Simona Sacchi (0000-0003-0028-7462, University of Milano-Bicocca) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 89 |
| Pages | 103629 |
| Publication date | 2023-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2212-4209 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103629 |
| OpenAlex | W4323923248 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 87 |
Behavioral reactions to natural hazards, including floods, and mitigation intentions are strongly predicted by risk perception. Among the different psychological processes forging individuals’ risk-estimation, the present work focuses on the near-miss effect, the human tendency to underestimate the risks when a previous negative outcome is avoided by chance. Study 1 (N = 241) investigates the near-miss effect among residents of both flood-prone and safe areas, showing that participants exposed to near-miss scenarios perceive a lower level of risk and damages regardless of their past experience with the hazard, and thus are less prone to adopt protective measures. Based on the data collected in Study 1, Study 2 develops a series of agent-based models to simulate the effect of experiencing near-miss events on a neighborhood in a flood-prone area, where inhabitants have to decide whether to purchase insurance against flood-related damage. The agent-based models integrating the psychological parameters reveals that the underestimation of the likelihood of flooding due to the near-miss effect is likely to increase the negative economic consequences of disasters suffered by the population. The work shows, at a population level, how psychological factors and human responses to risk might tailor the economic consequences of flood-related events. Implications for risk management and communication are discussed
Actuarial science · Business · Computer security · Damages · Economics · Environmental health · Estimation · Flood myth · Forensic engineering · Geography · Hazard · Natural disaster · Natural hazard · Near miss · Perception · Political science · Population · Risk assessment · Risk perception · Computer Science · Disaster Management and Resilience · Engineering · Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Medicine · Psychology
A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior
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Understanding smallholder farmers’ adaptation behaviors through climate change beliefs, risk perception, trust, and psychological distance
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An Analysis of the Public Perception of Flood Risk on the Belgian Coast
Coevolution of neocortical size, group size and language in humans
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Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors
Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures – lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002
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Potential influence of cognitive bias on decision-making in a flood scenario
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The Psychological Distance of Climate Change
The Protective Action Decision Model
Natural Hazards and Motivation for Mitigation Behavior
American Risk Perceptions
Emotions, Trust, and Perceived Risk
Analysis of Flood Evacuation Process in Vulnerable Community with Mutual Aid Mechanism
Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance
Factors of influence on flood damage mitigation behaviour by households
The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks—Insights from an agent-based model
Factors determining residents’ preparedness for floods in modern megalopolises
A Friend in Need? Exploring the Influence of Disease and Disability Onset on the Number of Close Friends Among Older Adults
Do people “personally experience” global warming, and if so how, and does it matter
Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour
The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits
Friendships, loneliness and psychological wellbeing in older adults
Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness
How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits
Close friend and group influence on adolescent cigarette smoking and alcohol use
The Emergence of “Us and Them” in 80 Lines of Code
A Preliminary Study of the Size Determinant in Small Group Interaction
Social networks, support cliques, and kinship
Risk as feelings
Flood Insurance
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2025 (2) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |