To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the Covid-19 Delta wave in Poland

Bibliographic Data

ID22069903
AuthorsMarcin Piotr Walkowiak (0000-0002-2862-7687, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, corresponding author), Dariusz Walkowiak (0000-0001-8874-2401, Poznan University of Medical Sciences), Jaroslaw Walkowiak (0000-0001-5813-5707, Poznan University of Medical Sciences)
Year2023
Volume11
Pages1221964-1221964
Publication date2023-09-07
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFrontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565
PublisherFrontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3389/fpubh.2023.1221964
PMID37744498
OpenAlexW4386520316
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited47

Background: During the Delta variant COVID-19 wave in Poland there were serious regional differences in vaccination rates and discrepancies in the enforcement of pandemic preventive measures, which allowed us to assess the relative effectiveness of the policies implemented. Methods: Creating a model that would predict mortality based on vaccination rates among the most vulnerable groups and the timing of the wave peak enabled us to calculate to what extent flattening the curve reduced mortality. Subsequently, a model was created to assess which preventive measures delayed the peak of infection waves. Combining those two models allowed us to estimate the relative effectiveness of those measures. Results: Flattening the infection curve worked: according to our model, each week of postponing the peak of the wave reduced excess deaths by 1.79%. Saving a single life during the Delta wave required one of the following: either the vaccination of 57 high-risk people, or 1,258 low-risk people to build herd immunity, or the isolation of 334 infected individuals for a cumulative period of 10.1 years, or finally quarantining 782 contacts for a cumulative period of 19.3 years. Conclusions: Except for the most disciplined societies, vaccination of high-risk individuals followed by vaccinating low-risk groups should have been the top priority instead of relying on isolation and quarantine measures which can incur disproportionately higher social costs. Our study demonstrates that even in a country with uniform policies, implementation outcomes varied, highlighting the importance of fine-tuning policies to regional specificity

Environmental health · Herd immunity · Pandemic · Quarantine · Vaccination · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Immune responses and vaccinations · Medicine · Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy · Virology

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