Global burden and projections of breast cancer incidence and mortality to 2050

A comprehensive analysis of GLOBOCAN data

Bibliographic Data

ID22070808
AuthorsOmar Freihat (0000-0001-6213-7019, Abu Dhabi University, corresponding author), Dávid Sipos (0000-0001-9615-1740, University of Pecs), Árpád Kovács (0009-0003-7347-4549, University of Debrecen)
Year2025
Volume13
Pages1622954-1622954
Publication date2025-10-30
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFrontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565
PublisherFrontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3389/fpubh.2025.1622954
PMID41246094
OpenAlexW4415686736
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited31

Background: Breast cancer is a leading global health challenge, exhibiting significant regional disparities in incidence, mortality, and survival outcomes. This study analyzed the burden of breast cancer in 2022 and projects its future impact by 2050 using GLOBOCAN data. Methods: Incidence and mortality data for breast cancer from 2022 were analyzed across continents, age group, HDI and countries categories. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) from 2018 to 2022 was calculated to project cases and deaths for 2050. Mortality-to-Incidence Ratios (MIR) were computed to assess survival disparities. Results: In 2022, Asia accounted for the highest breast cancer incidence (985,817 cases), followed by Europe (557,532) and Northern America (306,307). Africa recorded the highest mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) of 0.510, highlighting challenges in early detection and treatment. By 2050, global breast cancer cases are projected to exceed 6 million, with Asia, experiencing the most significant rise (2.0 million cases) followed by Africa (1.118 million cases), followed by. Mortality is expected to rise proportionally, with Asia (484,468) and Africa (390,695 deaths) and bearing the largest burden. The MIR for 2050 shows marked disparities, with Africa (0.35) and Asia (0.25) remaining elevated compared to Europe (0.20) and Northern America (0.13). Conclusion: The projected rise in breast cancer incidence and mortality highlights the urgent need for region-specific interventions. Targeted strategies focusing on early detection, improved access to treatment, and reduction of modifiable risk factors are essential, particularly in transitioning economies where disparities remain stark

Breast cancer · Burden of disease · Cancer · Cancer incidence · Disease · Mortality rate · BRCA gene mutations in cancer · Breast Cancer Treatment Studies · Global Cancer Incidence and Screening · Epidemiology

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