Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of Sars-CoV-2 in Australia
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22073758 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sheryl L Chang (0000-0002-6119-828X, The University of Sydney), Oliver M Cliff (0000-0001-5041-4090, The University of Sydney), Cameron Zachreson (0000-0002-0578-4049, The University of Sydney), Mikhail Prokopenko (0000-0002-4215-0344, The University of Sydney, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Pages | 823043-823043 |
| Publication date | 2022-02-24 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Frontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565 |
| Publisher | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpubh.2022.823043 |
| PMID | 35284395 |
| OpenAlex | W3214775149 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 34 |
An outbreak of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2 that began around mid-June 2021 in Sydney, Australia, quickly developed into a nation-wide epidemic. The ongoing epidemic is of major concern as the Delta variant is more infectious than previous variants that circulated in Australia in 2020. Using a re-calibrated agent-based model, we explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including case isolation, home quarantine, school closures, and stay-at-home restrictions (i.e., “social distancing.”) Our modelling indicated that the levels of reduced interactions in workplaces and across communities attained in Sydney and other parts of the nation were inadequate for controlling the outbreak. A counter-factual analysis suggested that if 70% of the population followed tight stay-at-home restrictions, then at least 45 days would have been needed for new daily cases to fall from their peak to below ten per day. Our model predicted that, under a progressive vaccination rollout, if 40–50% of the Australian population follow stay-at-home restrictions, the incidence will peak by mid-October 2021: the peak in incidence across the nation was indeed observed in mid-October. We also quantified an expected burden on the healthcare system and potential fatalities across Australia
Biology · Disease · Economics · Environmental health · Geography · Outbreak · Pandemic · Population · Psychological intervention · Quarantine · Social distance · Socioeconomics · Sociology · Telecommunications · Vaccination · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Medicine · SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research · Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy · Virology
Persistence of the Omicron variant of Sars-CoV-2 in Australia
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Covid-19 Cases in West Java, Indonesia and Its Influencing Factors
Do Covid-19 CT features vary between patients from within and outside mainland China? Findings from a meta-analysis
Phase-wise evaluation and optimization of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S
Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of Sars-CoV-2 in Australia
Qualitative Insights into How Older People and Their Families Use Telecommunications during a Pandemic to Alleviate Social Isolation
An Introduction to the Bootstrap
The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases
Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with Covid-2019
Presymptomatic Sars-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility
Estimating clinical severity of Covid-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
Modelling transmission and control of the Covid-19 pandemic in Australia
Quantifying Sars-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of Sars-CoV-2 in Australia
| Citations per year | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2023 (2) |
| Highly cited | No |