Seasonality of Covid-19 incidence in the United States
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22083375 |
|---|---|
| Authors | El Hussain Shamsa (University Hospitals of Cleveland, corresponding author), Ali Shamsa (Medical College of Wisconsin), Kezhong Zhang (0000-0002-6062-235X, Wayne State University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Pages | 1298593-1298593 |
| Publication date | 2023-12-05 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Frontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565 |
| Publisher | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1298593 |
| PMID | 38115849 |
| OpenAlex | W4389341645 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 21 |
Background: The surges of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared to follow a repeating pattern of COVID-19 outbreaks regardless of social distancing, mask mandates, and vaccination campaigns. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States of America (USA), and to delineate the dominant frequencies of the periodic patterns of the disease. Methods: We characterized periodicity in COVID-19 incidences over the first three full seasonal years (March 2020 to March 2023) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We utilized a spectral analysis approach to find the naturally occurring dominant frequencies of oscillation in the incidence data using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm. Results: Our study revealed four dominant peaks in the periodogram: the two most dominant peaks show a period of oscillation of 366 days and 146.4 days, while two smaller peaks indicate periods of 183 days and 122 days. The period of 366 days indicates that there is a single COVID-19 outbreak that occurs approximately once every year, which correlates with the dominant outbreak in the early/mid-winter months. The period of 146.4 days indicates approximately 3 peaks per year and matches well with each of the 3 annual outbreaks per year. Conclusion: Our study revealed the predictable seasonality of COVID-19 outbreaks, which will guide public health preventative efforts to control future outbreaks. However, the methods used in this study cannot predict the amplitudes of the incidences in each outbreak: a multifactorial problem that involves complex environmental, social, and viral strain variables
Biology · Disease · Environmental health · Geography · Outbreak · Pandemic · Seasonality · Vaccination · Veterinary medicine · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Demography · Mathematics · Medicine · Zoonotic diseases and public health · Ecology · Internal Medicine · Virology
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |