The psychology and social dynamics of fetal sex prognostication in China

Evidence from historical data

Bibliographic Data

ID2260066
AuthorsZ Hong (0000-0002-5343-3008, Department of Sociology Zhejiang University Hangzhou Zhejiang Province P. R. China, corresponding author), Sergey Zinin (Warring States Workshop University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst MA United States), Sergey A Zinin (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
Year2023
Volume125
Issue3
Pages519-531
Publication date2023-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Anthropologist (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0002-7294 • E-ISSN: 1548-1433
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/aman.13848
OpenAlexW4367596549
LanguageEN
Citations received12
References cited46

Fetal sex prognostication has been a common practice in many human societies, yet most of the prognosticative methods do not perform better than chance. Why do these ineffective prognostication practices recur across societies and persist for long periods of time? In this article, we use historical texts of four different genres in traditional China (oracle bone inscriptions, dynastic history, encyclopedia, and local gazetteers) to examine the social and cognitive factors that lead to the overestimation of the predictive accuracy of sex prognostication and place fetal sex prognostication into a more general framework to understand the persistence of ineffective cultural practices. In particular, we present a detailed historical analysis showing that individuals often entertain considerable uncertainty regarding the accuracy of sex prognostication and quantitative data demonstrating a significant bias toward selectively reporting successes in (fictionalized) historical texts. We conclude by discussing how such reporting bias combined with humans' imperfect information processing may help explain the persistence of ineffective technologies, such as divination, and magic in general

Archaeology · Biology · China · Divination · Imperfect · Literature · MAGIC (telescope · Magic bullet · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Historical Economic and Social Studies · History · Psychology · Race, Genetics, and Society

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