“Compensate the Losers?” Economic Policy and the Origins of U.S. Partisan Realignment

Bibliographic Data

ID23252240
AuthorsIlyana Kuziemko (Boston University, corresponding author), Nicolas Longuet-Marx (Boston University), Naidu (0000-0002-9774-1678, Boston University), Suresh Naidu
Year2023
Publication date2023-10-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeREPORT
VenueNational Bureau of Economic Research (REPOSITORY)
PublisherNational Bureau of Economic Research (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.3386/w31794
OpenAlexW4387868192
LanguageEN
Citations received8
References cited35

We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution” policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat” party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat”) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections.

Economics · Political economy · Political science · Social Policy and Reform Studies

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